For the record, I completely agree and my money is on a failed mission. However, there are enough discrepancies and hypothetical scenarios to warrant at least a look-see before we close the books on Cosmos 1. I appreciate your comments also Max, but I'm not living in a dreamland -- I'm simply not assuming that the US military is bound to tell us what they know. They are not obligated to tell anyone if, when, or where they picked it up if they were to. Moreover, if it did achieve orbit, we don't know what the orbit is. Again, I agree that the aforementioned (by Max and others) ground stations should have seen it if it achieved orbit (or even some sub-orbital ballistic trajectories). My point is simply that a hypothetical case can be made and the hypotheses can be put to bed this weekend. Now back to dreamland.... Mark Dr. Mark S. Whorton EV42 / Guidance, Navigation, and Mission Analysis NASA Marshall Space Flight Center p: 256-544-1435 f: 256-544-5416 mark.whorton@nasa.gov -----Original Message----- From: Russell Eberst [mailto:eberst@blueyonder.co.uk] Sent: Friday, June 24, 2005 1:50 PM To: Whorton, Mark Subject: Re: Cosmos 1 Search At 13:35 24/06/2005 -0500, you wrote: > >Hi folks, > >As you all know the prospects of Cosmos 1 achieving orbit appears to be >slim according to the Planetary Society. But they are holding out hope >that it actually did make it to "some" orbit. It is not likely, but if >it actually is in orbit and functioning nominally, the sails are >programmed to deploy on June 25 beginning at approximately 9:35 pm PDT. > >Let me emphasize this -- if we are to learn that Cosmos 1 actually is >in orbit, you may very well be the ones to determine that and let us know. > >My rough calculations show that it may be brighter than -1 or perhaps >-2 magnitude (depending strongly on the relative orientation of the >sail, sun and observer), and God only knows where and when a deployment would occur. >So please let us know if you see anything. The Volna submarine-launched ballistic missile was launched at 1946:09 UTC from the K-496 "Borisoglebsk", a Kalmar-class submarine, in the Barents Sea. The first stage engine of the Volna is reported to have failed 83 seconds into flight, and the first stage did not separate from the second stage. The rocket ended its flight 160 seconds after launch; it probably reached about 200 km into space before falling back to Earth. Confusing the issue, the Planetary Society reported that telemetry from the satellite was recorded but contact was lost during the apogee burn at 2007 UTC. That would have suggested a failure of the final stage apogee burn when the vehicle would have been in around a -2000 x 765 km x 80 deg orbit, with reentry around 2019 UTC over the equatorial Pacific. However, it's not unknown for stray signals to be confused with the real target, and the later claims of telemetry on the second orbit, which now seem to be clearly wrong, cast doubt on the apogee burn information too. At the moment the balance of the evidence is that the spacecraft no longer existed by 1950 UTC. Close, but no cigar-shaped object to track. regards Russell -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.323 / Virus Database: 267.8.0/27 - Release Date: 23/06/2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Jun 24 2005 - 15:14:14 EDT