RE: Secondary decay 27 June?

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Jun 28 2004 - 17:31:27 EDT

  • Next message: David Brierley: "DMB Obs Jul 27-28"

    Marco Langbroek wrote:
    
    > Wayne speculates whether this could be related to the decay 
    > of 1992-088E earlier that night; and I want to pass that on 
    > to the experts on this list! A quick check with Orbitron and 
    > the last OIG orbit 04178.90776223 suggest a potential pass, 
    > would anything have survived, about 20-30 minutes earlier. 
    > But I reckoned that with this kind of orbit that time could 
    > be inaccurate, as indeed the 2:52 UTC event was already 
    > several minutes off?
    
    Highly unlikely for anything to have survived much beyond 2:52 UTC; certainly
    not to 6:31 UTC. Even if it did, there are at least these problems:
    
    1. The image shows an object somewhat east of the setting moon, therefore, low
    in approximately the SSW. If a piece somehow survived, and arrived 30 min late,
    then its track would have been low in the SSW, but as you point out, it was
    running early at 2:52 UTC, by some 6 to 7 min, I estimate, so there is no way.
    
    2. I cannot discern the horizon, but assuming it roughly parallels the bottom of
    the image, then the path of the decay also should have paralleled the bottom.
    However, the object in the image descended at a considerable angle to the
    horizon.
    
    You can safely rule out the decay.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
    
    
    
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