Decay watch: 2003 June 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jun 25 2003 - 03:25:56 EDT

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    My late final notice for the late Molniya.
    
    Because of vacation, computer system upgrades, and other commitments, 
    I'll be unable to post further Decay Watch notes until late-July at the 
    earliest.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20444 = 90-  6 A = Molniya 3-37
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jun 23 21:38     Jun 23 19:29 +-47m       11.0 S   103.0 W
    SatEvo     Jun 25 07:10     Jun 23 20:40 +-90m       52.7 S   161.2 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-37                                     288 x 111 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.74926960  .74530884  94861-5  86917-3 0  9612
    2 20444  61.5951 105.8745 0134150 274.8167  83.7863 16.27380796 99611
    
    Note: I suspect that the perigee indicated by the final elset, and by
    two others issued for the same rev, is too high. My predicted elsets
    run:
    Molniya 3-37                                     289 x 83 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.81078509  .94363573  17282+1  31395-3 0 99579
    2 20444  61.5653 105.5844 0156976 269.8351  88.3661 16.32609924 99627
    Molniya 3-37                                     214 x 81 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.87189139 1.51761386  71387+1  36558-3 0 99577
    2 20444  61.5610 105.3197 0102065 269.8723  88.9581 16.46866730 99635
    I estimate that it decayed over the southern Pacific following
    perigee on the first of these two orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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