Decay watch: 2003 June 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jun 23 2003 - 14:27:06 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast Molniya 3-37"

     From the latest update to my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20444 = 90-  6 A = Molniya 3-37
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jun 23 15:00     Jun 23 20:59 +-5h         5.0 N   117.8 W
    SatEvo     Jun 23 18:10     Jun 23 22:09 +-3h        50.3 S   179.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-37                                     496 x 87 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.50025426  .38014172  85973-5  23564-3 0  9578
    2 20444  61.5779 106.8777 0306462 269.6543  87.0617 15.93766799 99574
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-37                                     354 x 85 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.74943514  .67305119  62700+0  28956-3 0 99573
    2 20444  61.5700 105.8476 0203868 269.7982  87.8657 16.20164157 99615
    Molniya 3-37                                     305 x 84 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.81105289  .83538603  12641+1  31042-3 0 99574
    2 20444  61.5663 105.5861 0168008 269.8349  88.2399 16.29358068 99626
    Molniya 3-37                                     241 x 83 km
    1 20444U 90006A   03174.87229813 1.20162380  36350+1  34934-3 0 99573
    2 20444  61.5626 105.3223 0121263 269.8719  88.7386 16.41449470 99632
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay near perigee on the last of
    my SatEvo revs. This has puts it over the far S Pacific. The
    following orbit carries it close to San Francisco at 22:34 UTC. There
    is a good chance that it will decay on the previous rev, as SCC
    suggests.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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