Decay watch: 2001 June 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jun 18 2001 - 13:39:53 PDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Proton 3. Stage decayed"

    Having been away for a few days, I was unable to report advance notices
    about the decays of the Astra 2C Proton rocket and its associated
    casing.
    
    Indeed, this is probably my last Decay Watch notice for the time being.
    Beginning on June 27th, I have two scheduled trips to Hilo and Mauna
    Kea, Hawaii, and other commitments that will leave little time for my
    satellite interests until (probably) sometime in September.
    
    Production of my SatEvo Decay List and satbase (all-object) elset file
    will continue on a "best efforts" basis. My other elset files
    (dklist.tle, select.tle, iridiums.tle, etc) are auto-updated and may
    suffer little disruption unless something breaks...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26854 = 01- 25 B = Astra 2C Proton r
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Jun 18 19:50 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jun 16 05:32     Jun 16 23:40 +-12h        1.4 N    37.7 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 17 15:35     Jun 18 02:32 +-7h        36.6 N   129.9 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 17 20:33     Jun 18 02:42 +-5h         4.8 N   159.3 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 18 00:22     Jun 18 02:42 +-5h         5.1 N   159.1 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 18 02:49     Jun 18 02:42 +-5h         5.1 N   159.1 E
    
    SatEvo     Jun 18 19:50     Jun 18 04:52 +-2h         0.0      50.4 W
    
    Final(?) elset:
    Astra 2C Proton r                                172 x 135 km
    1 26854U 01025B   01168.77870498  .09632318  12587-4  16806-3 0   162
    2 26854  51.5944 291.3555 0028228 277.6335  82.1545 16.44674406   287
    
    Note: SpaceCom appears to have lost this object several hours prior
    to decay. My SatEvo-predicted elsets for the final two revs are:
    Astra 2C Proton r                                142 x 120 km
    1 26854U 01025B   01169.08185107  .25993549  70315+0  15186-3 0 90164
    2 26854  51.5920 289.6202 0016789 278.9319  80.8781 16.53271434   332
    Astra 2C Proton r                                126 x 112 km
    1 26854U 01025B   01169.14223304  .57848201  49034+1  19984-3 0 90167
    2 26854  51.5909 289.2711 0011299 279.1931  80.6790 16.57721747   344
    I estimate that this decayed near the end of the second of these
    revs, on a northbound track that crossed the equator over the mouth 
    of the Amazon.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26856 = 01- 25 D = 
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Jun 18 19:35 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jun 16 09:33     Jun 16 20:00 +-6h        11.2 N    96.0 W
    SpaceCom   Jun 16 13:30     Jun 16 19:27 +-4h        23.4 N   121.4 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 16 17:21     Jun 16 19:06 +-1h        42.1 S    61.3 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 16 19:15     Jun 16 19:08 +-27m       37.6 S    68.9 E
    
    SatEvo     Jun 18 19:35     Jun 16 19:14 +-25m        0.0     103.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    Astra 2C Proton casing                           141 x 129 km
    1 26856U 01025D   01167.76648534  .49509993  12707-4  40220-3 0   118
    2 26856  51.5824 297.0615 0008570 261.1667 250.9423 16.51694101   114
    
    Note: My estimate is for this decay to have been near the northbound
    equator crossing on the orbit given by this final elset. This puts it
    in the vicinity of Singapore. If it survived, it would have passed
    over almost the full length of Japan from Kyushu at 19:24 to just SE 
    of Hokkaido at 19:28.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Jun 18 2001 - 13:41:26 PDT