Decay watch: 2000 Jun 30

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jun 30 2000 - 13:47:02 PDT

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    I have just updated my Decay Watch page at
           http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    with more on the following...
    
    #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jun 30 14:38 +-14h       47.0 S    77.2 E
       SatEvo:   Ju1  1 04:15 +-5h        62.7 S    54.0 W
    
    The latest elset:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   1721 x 87 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00182.78761690  .33245410  14503-4  41091-3 0   383
    2 20339  63.7520   2.7616 1122087 246.1392 116.5958 13.97189766 76861
    
    SpaceCom is still having fun with this decay, though the elsets no
    longer show their wild fluctuation. The latest elset has this running
    all of 12 minutes late against yesterday's prediction, though this is
    over an interval in which the orbital period had fallen from 122 minutes
    to 103 minutes. My predicted elset for the final revs...
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   985 x 82 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00183.06186221 2.89622085  36612+1  20759-2 0 90383
    2 20339  63.7077   1.9195 0653141 246.1197 106.9026 15.10819189 76903
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   722 x 81 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00183.12749866 4.09138095  10511+2  22348-2 0 90384
    2 20339  63.6896   1.6921 0472668 246.1150 108.8620 15.55394584 76915
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   272 x 75 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00183.19105666 9.99999999  50000+2  32096-2 0 90385
    2 20339  63.6706   1.4531 0150195 246.1104 112.3085 16.37032278 76923
    ... with decay most likely near perigee in the second of these.
          ______________________________________________________
    
    #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  1 20:40 +-22h       15.8 N   133.0 E
       SatEvo:   Jul  2 03:45 +-9h        20.8 N   119.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              942 x 122 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00182.57336730  .19999469  99832-5  88992-3 0  5456
    2 21025  46.3399 204.7679 0592651  33.6317 104.2548 15.11394986131301
    
    The latest elset shows this running 3.4 minutes early against
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction - the prediction had been badly upset by
    the too-high eccentricity in yesterday's "latest" elset. It is early
    days, but it is possible that this could decay on a northbound pass
    across N America from Las Cruces, New Mexico, at 03:49 UTC on the 2nd to
    Montreal at 03:56. My predicted final elset:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              287 x 107 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.09040338 1.28619534  40068+1  11813-2 0 95452
    2 21025  46.3054 196.2983 0136967  42.1211 318.9237 16.28336008131549
    with decay soon after the end of this rev.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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