Decay watch: 2000 Jun 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jun 28 2000 - 15:27:50 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Four new objects"

    Two more decayers from my Decay Watch page at
                http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/  :
    
    Object: #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    Notice prepared: 2000 Jun 28 17:45 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jun 27 21:31     Jun 29 09:56 +-1d        59.4 S   172.9 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 28 16:52     Jun 29 09:56 +-1d        60.3 S   176.2 E
    
    SatEvo     Jun 28 17:45     Jun 27 18:07 +-2h        63.2 S   103.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   1532 x 82 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00179.73429345  .46088658  13474-4  42025-3 0    86
    2 20339  63.7147   8.3834 1009038 244.7816 272.2914 14.25417559 76469
    
    Note: Despite the fact that SpaceCom are predicting this decay for
    tomorrow, the 29th, it has flagged its latest decay warning as the
    final one. Also, the elsets available from OIG say "Decayed: 2000/06/27"
    in the header line. If the above elset is close to correct, my analysis 
    suggests that this decayed soon after perigee on the that orbit, 
    with a possibility that it may have survived for one more rev
    with decay at about 19:37 UTC near 62.7 S, 83.7 E. My own elsets
    for these two revs (perigee uncertain) are:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   1323 x 88 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00179.70151857 5.81525541  13140+2  67193-2 0 90059
    2 20339  63.6506   7.6757 0871398 245.2089 105.4808 14.56225007 76510
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   653 x 82 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00179.76889307 9.99999999  50000+2  74826-2 0 90055
    2 20339  63.6065   7.4507 0423322 245.2054 110.3325 15.66908359 76523
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    Notice prepared: 2000 Jun 28 22:15 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jun 27 16:16     Jul  1 21:10 +-3d        12.5 S    51.5 W
    SpaceCom   Jun 27 21:19     Jul  1 21:48 +-2d        46.2 N    34.3 E
    
    SatEvo     Jun 28 22:15     Jul  2 00:51 +-19h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1332 x 125 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00180.72251163  .13501597  85273-5  86163-3 0  5320
    2 21025  46.3632 214.0163 0849203  24.1375 335.2662 14.49073585131032
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1267 x 124 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00181.06686438  .15066816  94061-2  86155-3 0 95329
    2 21025  46.3599 212.3585 0808149  25.7965 338.0229 14.59305135131084
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1227 x 123 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00181.27181579  .15676851  10457-1  85309-3 0 95320
    2 21025  46.3578 211.3599 0782504  26.7960 337.0432 14.65603831131117
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1172 x 123 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00181.54368216  .16600768  12291-1  84249-3 0 95320
    2 21025  46.3548 210.0204 0746883  28.1367 335.7076 14.74372468131152
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1114 x 122 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00181.81388632  .17684289  14707-1  83285-3 0 95328
    2 21025  46.3517 208.6715 0709383  29.4872 334.3354 14.83627895131192
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              1069 x 121 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00182.01540333  .18636367  16960-1  82663-3 0 95326
    2 21025  46.3494 207.6532 0679820  30.5068 333.2798 14.90942544131227
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 12 deg S at ~19:00 
    local time. Eclipse exit occurs near northern apex (46 deg N) at
    ~01:30 local time.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Jun 28 2000 - 15:47:48 PDT