Decay watch: 2000 Jun 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jun 26 2000 - 13:47:11 PDT

  • Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Cosmos 1077 decayed"

    #11268 = 79- 12 A = Cosmos 1077
    
    SpaceCom has still to post its final analysis for this. Current
    estimates for the decay are:
       SpaceCom: Jun 26 15:37 +-2h        73.9 N    95.6 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 26 15:01 +-45m       54.8 S    56.2 E
    
    What is probably the final elset...
    Cosmos 1077      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   13       148 x 132 km
    1 11268U 79012A   00178.51410082  .21056467 -98639-6  23404-3 0  6440
    2 11268  81.1364 211.2586 0012554 263.1232  97.0557 16.49804762176503
    ... shows this running 20 sec early against yesterday's SatEvo
    prediction. I show the decay occurring northbound over the SW Indian
    Ocean. My predicted elset for the final rev:
    Cosmos 1077      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   13       132 x 121 km
    1 11268U 79012A   00178.57462304  .55246173  24262+1  31351-3 0 96445
    2 11268  81.1347 211.1723 0008787 262.8762  97.0239 16.54868405176511
                 _____________________________________
    
    #26379 = 00- 31 B = Express 3A Proton r
    
    (Very similar) final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Jun 26 05:01 +-43m        3.9 S    75.7 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 26 05:00 +-1h         0.0      72.9 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Express 3A Proton r                              150 x 145 km
    1 26379U 00031B   00177.96607988  .09289531  12647-4  18415-3 0   184
    2 26379  51.6190 278.0349 0003831 325.5770  34.4935 16.47032384   329
    Express 3A Proton r                              146 x 121 km
    1 26379U 00031B   00178.14791095  .19846246  12970-4  13094-3 0   199
    2 26379  51.6340 276.9659 0019009  43.8960 317.0676 16.52193938   356
    
    Yesterday's decay prediction had an uncertainty of +-3h and not the +-9h
    reported at the time. Against that prediction, the penultimate elset
    shows it running only 0.8 sec early. The latest elset, however, has it
    4.7 sec late, but is suspect with a too-high eccentricity. I prefer the
    following elset for the final rev...
    Express 3A Proton r                              127 x 125 km
    1 26379U 00031B   00178.14768560  .35975698  14864+1  18446-3 0 90186
    2 26379  51.6169 276.9924 0002155 326.3557  33.6306 16.55095369   358
    ... with decay near the northbound equator crossing at the end of this 
    orbit, over Colombia, S America. If it survived, it would have passed
    just E of Caracas, Venezuela, at 05:03 UTC, over S England (in daylight)
    at 05:19 and onwards across Europe to Kiev, Ukraine, at 05:24.
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Jun 26 2000 - 13:50:34 PDT