Decay watch: 2000 Jun 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jun 25 2000 - 15:08:21 PDT

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    #11268 = 79- 12 A = Cosmos 1077
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jun 26 18:47 +-15h       40.0 N   172.7 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 26 16:36 +-6h        25.7 S    42.6 E
    
    The latest elset...
    Cosmos 1077      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   13       188 x 176 km
    1 11268U 79012A   00177.65959948  .04151578 -95379-6  64221-3 0  6397
    2 11268  81.1531 212.4420 0009217 244.2278 115.7955 16.33971117176367
    ...has this running 24 sec late against yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I
    have this decaying northbound near Madagascar.
                 _____________________________________
    
    #26379 = 00- 31 B = Express 3A Proton r
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jun 26 05:32 +-8h        41.8 N    54.7 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 26 05:00 +-9h         0.0      72.9 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Express 3A Proton r                              165 x 159 km
    1 26379U 00031B   00177.66219494  .05955053  12467-4  35146-3 0   154
    2 26379  51.6240 279.7622 0004544 288.3452  71.7095 16.41629484   274
    
    This elset has this 9 sec early against yesterday's prediction. I place
    this decay near a northbound equator crossing over Colombia, S America,
    on a track that carries it just E of Caracas, Venezuela, at 05:03 UTC.
    If it survives, it passes over S England (in daylight) at 05:19 and
    onwards across Europe to Kiev, Ukraine, at 05:24. SpaceCom's decay point
    is a bit further on to the E of the Caspian Sea.
                 _____________________________________
    
    #26380 = 00- 31 C = Express 3A Proton platform
    
    Final analyses of this decay:
       SpaceCom: Jun 25 03:08 +-5h        50.5 N    70.0 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 25 00:28 +-90m        0.0     177.1 W
    
    The final elset...
    Express 3A Proton platform                       170 x 164 km
    1 26380U 00031C   00176.74627177  .10398497  12392-4  79331-3 0    65
    2 26380  51.6059 284.9250 0004119  85.5831 274.5666 16.39579814   124
    ...shows this running 5 sec late against my previous prediction. I put
    the decay near a southbound equator crossing over the central Pacific.
    My predicted elsets for the final two revs:
    Express 3A Proton platform                       148 x 144 km
    1 26380U 00031C   00176.92870094  .33673417  10975+1  63205-3 0 90069
    2 26380  51.6038 283.8885 0002784  86.3580 273.6738 16.47388456   151
    Express 3A Proton platform                       131 x 129 km
    1 26380U 00031C   00176.98926035  .89283692  95139+1  56823-3 0 90068
    2 26380  51.6023 283.5410 0001763  86.6178 273.4023 16.53655242   161
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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