SatEvo decay list #101

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jun 24 2000 - 09:58:48 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #101  (issued 2000 June 24)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 August 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     24998   94- 29 ADF STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June  2.0
     26240   99- 57 EE  CBERS LM4 deb                      June  2.8
     13576   78- 26 FP  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb              June  6.2
     23782   96-  7 B   NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r            June  7.43
      4624   70- 91 D   Cosmos 375 deb                     June  9.0
     23858   96- 27 B   SAX Centaur r                      June  9.25
     24377   94- 29 QE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June 10.3
      4985   70- 25 HF  Thorad Agena D deb                 June 10
      4006   61- 15 JL  Transit 4A deb                     June 11
     14411   68- 91 CM  Cosmos 249 deb                     June 11.5
     24093   94- 29 EQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June 13.0
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005                        June 14.90
     22507   92- 93 GS  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb              June 16.1
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145                        June 16.53
      3566   68- 97 S   Cosmos 252 deb                     June 18.4
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r                      June 18.69
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda                   June 19.46
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68                       June 20.54
     26367   00- 26 C   Simsat 1 Rokot r                   June 21.45
     24147   94- 29 GW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June 22.4 Note 1
     25939   79-104 M   CAT 1 Ariane 1 deb                 June 23?  Note 1
     26380   00- 31 C   Express 3a Proton plat    June 24  Note 3
      8092   72- 58 DT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb     June 25.1
     24982   94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 25.2
     17206   86- 19 BJ  SPOT 1 r deb              June 25.5
     24175   94- 29 JA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 26
     26379   00- 31 B   Express 3A Proton r       June 26  Note 3
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077               June 26.8
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June 27?
     26254   99- 57 EQ  CBERS LM4 deb             June 29
     24262   94- 29 MM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July  1
     14555   81- 53 JN  Cosmos 1275 deb           July  2
      1721   65- 82 CC  OV2-1/LCS2 deb            July  3
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor       July  3
     22402   92- 93 CT  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     July  8
     26324   99- 57 HH  CBERS LM4 deb             July  8 Note 2
     17256   81- 58 E   Cosmos 1278 deb           July 11 Note 2
     23209   94- 50 G   Cosmos 2287 aux motor     July 11
     24216   94- 29 KP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 12
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor     July 15
     24085   94- 29 EG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 15
      7874   72- 58 AW  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb     July 18
      9530   74- 94 E   Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2      July 19
     22542   92- 93 HC  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     July 20
     15786   64-  6 G   Elektron 1 deb            July 24
     26357   00- 24 B   USA 149 Titan 4 r         July 29
     19390   87- 20 BW  Cosmos 1823 deb         August  1
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird              August  3
     18208   86- 19 RF  SPOT 1 r deb            August  4
     23050   94- 21 H   Cosmos 2275 aux motor   August  4
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)     August  6
     25739   99- 26 E   Terriers adapter cone   August 10
     21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 32 aux motor   August 15
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2     August 16
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2         August 26
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot     August 26
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1     August 28
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r               September 26
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955           September 29
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r            October
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October
     23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux motor  October
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux motor  October
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r   October
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1              October
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Pegasus stg3  October
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r        October
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1           November
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r       November
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          December
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79        2001 January
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85       2001 February
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    3. #26379 and #26380, the Express 3A Proton r and platform, were 
    launched only hours ago - the decay predictions are uncertain.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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