Catching up after my return...
#16934 = 86- 68 A = Molniya 1-68
This is down, though SpaceCom has yet to post its final notice.
The latest decay analyses are:
SpaceCom: Jun 20 13:00 +-2h 49.8 S 39.2 W
SatEvo: Jun 20 12:55 +-2h 52.7 S 43.7 W
What is probably the final elset is:
Molniya 1-68 807 x 78 km
1 16934U 86068A 00172.38980078 .99999999 69358-5 78307-3 0 4029
2 16934 61.7928 104.1682 0534661 265.9607 254.8368 15.41223878101920
My prediction for the final two revs:
Molniya 1-68 656 x 74 km
1 16934U 86068A 00172.42433024 2.82295468 51333+1 98746-3 0 94029
2 16934 61.7811 104.0354 0431624 265.9773 89.0792 15.67783272101932
Molniya 1-68 403 x 72 km
1 16934U 86068A 00172.48764106 4.96536232 23240+2 11326-2 0 94022
2 16934 61.7687 103.7817 0249898 266.0091 91.1309 16.13444747101940
Like SpaceCom, I show this decaying while northbound over the South
Atlantic.
__________________________________________________
#23502 = 95- 8 B = Cosmos 2306 r
The final analyses give:
SpaceCom: Jun 18 16:12 +-10m 14.4 S 44.0 W
SatEvo: Jun 18 16:37 +-1h 40.5 S 99.6 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 2306 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 11 160 x 139 km
1 23502U 95008B 00170.47911909 .14438603 71525-5 26128-3 0 203
2 23502 65.8042 279.3416 0016097 268.2781 219.0145 16.46210319296909
I show this decaying while northbound over the SE Indian Ocean. My
prediction for the final two revs:
Cosmos 2306 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 11 146 x 130 km
1 23502U 95008B 00170.57900063 .27059986 55773+0 26133-3 0 90206
2 23502 65.8024 278.9646 0012587 268.2045 91.6514 16.50452558296926
Cosmos 2306 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 11 134 x 122 km
1 23502U 95008B 00170.63953540 .38557190 13767+1 21946-3 0 90208
2 23502 65.8012 278.7347 0009540 268.1596 91.7311 16.54389303296932
__________________________________________________
#24771 = 97- 16 D = Thaicom 3 Spelda
Final decay estimates:
SpaceCom: Jun 19 06:27 +-2h 6.6 S 136.1 W
SatEvo: Jun 19 10:56 +-2h 6.0 S 174.7 E
Final elset:
Thaicom 3 Spelda 497 x 127 km
1 24771U 97016D 00171.15783362 .54796964 -32379-4 21470-2 0 2480
2 24771 6.5899 314.5238 0276701 263.7271 93.1392 15.86496217 47510
I get a much later decay than does SpaceCom, with decay over Tuvalu in
the central Pacific. My predicted elsets for the final two revs are:
Thaicom 3 Spelda 321 x 118 km
1 24771U 97016D 00171.34482670 1.32076530 31608+1 21983-2 0 92483
2 24771 6.5886 312.9197 0154179 266.9034 91.3314 16.19965413 47541
Thaicom 3 Spelda 207 x 109 km
1 24771U 97016D 00171.40614887 2.88696373 17159+2 20330-2 0 92483
2 24771 6.5878 312.3721 0074466 267.9878 91.1593 16.42940837 47553
__________________________________________________
#26367 = 00- 26 C = Simsat 1 Rokot r
Current decay estimates:
SpaceCom: Jun 21 11:48 +-15h 1.9 S 69.6 W
SatEvo: Jun 21 11:11 +-4h 38.1 S 122.0 E
Latest elset:
Simsat1 Rokot r 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 9 219 x 136 km
1 26367U 0026C 00172.57693483 .05942920 -17803-5 17851-3 0 1035
2 26367 86.3327 17.3453 0063217 180.3600 179.7673 16.35546215 5592
I show this decaying while southbound just after it passes over Western
Australia from Derby at 11:05 UTC to Esperance at 11:10. My prediction
for the final two revs:
Simsat1 Rokot r 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 9 147 x 116 km
1 26367U 0026C 00173.36897143 .25305888 51589+0 15301-3 0 91039
2 26367 86.3266 16.8822 0023821 176.8163 183.1989 16.53163932 5724
Simsat1 Rokot r 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 d 9 132 x 110 km
1 26367U 0026C 00173.42944251 .42389348 22229+1 17459-3 0 91037
2 26367 86.3253 16.8461 0016802 176.5410 183.4704 16.57021643 5737
More at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jun 20 2000 - 10:01:47 PDT