Decay watch: 2000 Jun 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jun 20 2000 - 09:58:48 PDT

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    Catching up after my return...
    
    #16934 = 86- 68 A = Molniya 1-68
    
    This is down, though SpaceCom has yet to post its final notice.
    The latest decay analyses are:
       SpaceCom: Jun 20 13:00 +-2h        49.8 S    39.2 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 20 12:55 +-2h        52.7 S    43.7 W
    What is probably the final elset is:
    Molniya 1-68                                     807 x 78 km
    1 16934U 86068A   00172.38980078  .99999999  69358-5  78307-3 0  4029
    2 16934  61.7928 104.1682 0534661 265.9607 254.8368 15.41223878101920
    My prediction for the final two revs:
    Molniya 1-68                                     656 x 74 km
    1 16934U 86068A   00172.42433024 2.82295468  51333+1  98746-3 0 94029
    2 16934  61.7811 104.0354 0431624 265.9773  89.0792 15.67783272101932
    Molniya 1-68                                     403 x 72 km
    1 16934U 86068A   00172.48764106 4.96536232  23240+2  11326-2 0 94022
    2 16934  61.7687 103.7817 0249898 266.0091  91.1309 16.13444747101940
    Like SpaceCom, I show this decaying while northbound over the South
    Atlantic.
              __________________________________________________
    
    #23502 = 95-  8 B = Cosmos 2306 r
    
    The final analyses give:
       SpaceCom: Jun 18 16:12 +-10m       14.4 S    44.0 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 18 16:37 +-1h        40.5 S    99.6 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2306 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   11       160 x 139 km
    1 23502U 95008B   00170.47911909  .14438603  71525-5  26128-3 0   203
    2 23502  65.8042 279.3416 0016097 268.2781 219.0145 16.46210319296909
    
    I show this decaying while northbound over the SE Indian Ocean. My
    prediction for the final two revs:
    Cosmos 2306 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   11       146 x 130 km
    1 23502U 95008B   00170.57900063  .27059986  55773+0  26133-3 0 90206
    2 23502  65.8024 278.9646 0012587 268.2045  91.6514 16.50452558296926
    Cosmos 2306 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   11       134 x 122 km
    1 23502U 95008B   00170.63953540  .38557190  13767+1  21946-3 0 90208
    2 23502  65.8012 278.7347 0009540 268.1596  91.7311 16.54389303296932
              __________________________________________________
    
    #24771 = 97- 16 D = Thaicom 3 Spelda
    
    Final decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jun 19 06:27 +-2h         6.6 S   136.1 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 19 10:56 +-2h         6.0 S   174.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    Thaicom 3 Spelda                                 497 x 127 km
    1 24771U 97016D   00171.15783362  .54796964 -32379-4  21470-2 0  2480
    2 24771   6.5899 314.5238 0276701 263.7271  93.1392 15.86496217 47510
    
    I get a much later decay than does SpaceCom, with decay over Tuvalu in
    the central Pacific. My predicted elsets for the final two revs are:
    Thaicom 3 Spelda                                 321 x 118 km
    1 24771U 97016D   00171.34482670 1.32076530  31608+1  21983-2 0 92483
    2 24771   6.5886 312.9197 0154179 266.9034  91.3314 16.19965413 47541
    Thaicom 3 Spelda                                 207 x 109 km
    1 24771U 97016D   00171.40614887 2.88696373  17159+2  20330-2 0 92483
    2 24771   6.5878 312.3721 0074466 267.9878  91.1593 16.42940837 47553
              __________________________________________________
    
    #26367 = 00- 26 C = Simsat 1 Rokot r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jun 21 11:48 +-15h        1.9 S    69.6 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 21 11:11 +-4h        38.1 S   122.0 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Simsat1 Rokot r  4.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    9       219 x 136 km
    1 26367U 0026C    00172.57693483  .05942920 -17803-5  17851-3 0  1035
    2 26367  86.3327  17.3453 0063217 180.3600 179.7673 16.35546215  5592
    
    I show this decaying while southbound just after it passes over Western
    Australia from Derby at 11:05 UTC to Esperance at 11:10. My prediction
    for the final two revs:
    Simsat1 Rokot r  4.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    9       147 x 116 km
    1 26367U 0026C    00173.36897143  .25305888  51589+0  15301-3 0 91039
    2 26367  86.3266  16.8822 0023821 176.8163 183.1989 16.53163932  5724
    Simsat1 Rokot r  4.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    9       132 x 110 km
    1 26367U 0026C    00173.42944251  .42389348  22229+1  17459-3 0 91037
    2 26367  86.3253  16.8461 0016802 176.5410 183.4704 16.57021643  5737
    
    
    More at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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