Decay watch: 2000 Jun 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Jun 15 2000 - 15:13:23 PDT

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    #10860 = 78- 45 A = Cosmos 1005
    
    Final analyses for this decay:
       SpaceCom: Jun 14 21:51 +-22m       28.2 S    86.8 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 14 21:38 +-30m        8.1 N    83.0 E
    
    I show this decaying while southbound to the E of Sri Lanka, just a few
    minutes after passing over eastern India. My predicted elset for the
    final rev is:
    Cosmos 1005      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   15       125 x 117 km
    1 10860U 78045A   00166.87259612  .66089363  62472+1  29282-3 0 95063
    2 10860  81.1747 132.2503 0005858 248.5085 111.4291 16.56941214214846
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    #11629 = 79- 99 A = Cosmos 1145
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jun 16 23:15 +-1d        18.8 S    22.9 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 16 18:56 +-6h        17.1 N    92.8 E
    
    My current prediction is for decay while northbound over the Bay of
    Bengal. The predicted final elsets are:
    Cosmos 1145      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       144 x 134 km
    1 11629U 79099A   00168.66499598  .25879613  59378+0  29247-3 0 96281
    2 11629  81.1124 279.6263 0007112 257.2315 102.6890 16.50199269131570
    Cosmos 1145      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       132 x 125 km
    1 11629U 79099A   00168.72557164  .43902573  13359+1  27724-3 0 96282
    2 11629  81.1112 279.5397 0005340 256.9845 102.9558 16.54268348131583
    See below for the current elset.
             __________________________________________________
    
    #23502 = 95-  8 B = Cosmos 2306 r
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jun 18 16:04 +-2d        11.1 N    53.7 W
       SatEvo:   Jun 18 22:55 +-18h
    
    This disappears into eclipse in the Earth's shadow while southbound 
    near 61 deg S at ~17:00 local time. Eclipse exit occurs while it is
    northbound near 40 deg N at ~03:00 local time. Current elset below.
             __________________________________________________
    
    #24771 = 97- 16 D = Thaicom 3 Spelda
    
    Another addition. Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jun 19 03:36 +-2d         2.7 N    17.7 E
       SatEvo:   Jun 19 12:30 +-22h
    
    This enters eclipse at about 4 deg S in the evening sky and leaves
    eclipse near 1 deg S in the morning. Current elset below.
             __________________________________________________
    
    Current elsets:
    Cosmos 1145      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       192 x 172 km
    1 11629U 79099A   00167.74967126  .05449954 -95544-6  82553-3 0  6288
    2 11629  81.1181 280.9126 0014993 260.8993  99.4205 16.33915407131421
    Cosmos 2306 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v   11       225 x 207 km
    1 23502U 95008B   00167.69622979  .01763174  00000-0  80776-3 0  9965
    2 23502  65.8119 289.5755 0013741 266.9462  93.0122 16.21292506296453
    Thaicom 3 Spelda                                 1466 x 135 km
    1 24771U 97016D   00167.67524748  .13243105  00000-0  16755-2 0  2179
    2 24771   6.5955 340.0953 0927057 212.7695 141.1196 14.27526051 47501
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more details.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jun 15 2000 - 15:15:40 PDT