Decay watch: 2000 Jun 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jun 07 2000 - 12:22:15 PDT

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    ** There is a warning of a strong geomagnetic storm on June 8 and 9
    following solar flares and an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection
    yesterday. Expect drag rates to increase even further.
          ________________________________________________________
    
    #23782 = 96-  7 B = NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r
    
    The final decay analyses are:
       SpaceCom: Jun  7 10:20 +-7m         6.2 S   117.6 W
       SatEvo  : Jun  7 10:17 -10m+80m     4.4 S   145.7 W
    My prediction yesterday had an invalid uncertainty of "+-12h" in the
    predicted decay time; the correct value should have been "+-4h".
    The final elset...
    NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r                          695 x 103 km
    1 23782U 96007B   00159.18468750  .76526310 -31378-4  10929-2 0  4645
    2 23782   6.4685  44.3196 0436598 193.2114  73.9151 15.56056806 51538
    ... shows this running 65 sec late against yesterdays prediction. 
    My computed elsets near the end are:
    NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r                          520 x 100 km
    1 23782U 96007B   00159.32782212 1.30088443  16937+1  13459-2 0 94609
    2 23782   6.4885  43.3851 0313960 194.5615 164.5127 15.87186005 51566
    NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r                          417 x 99 km
    1 23782U 96007B   00159.39032055 1.79313244  38891+1  14966-2 0 94609
    2 23782   6.4877  42.8529 0239514 195.6156 163.6325 16.06073484 51576
    NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r                          253 x 95 km
    1 23782U 96007B   00159.45194358 3.90339302  50000+2  19105-2 0 94606
    2 23782   6.4861  42.3105 0120231 196.6900 162.9109 16.36918147 51587
    I suspect that this decayed a little beyond perigee on the second of
    these, perhaps over the Pacific to the SE of Hawaii. However, there is a
    chance that it survived almost a full orbit beyond this point.
          ________________________________________________________
    
    #23858 = 96- 27 B = SAX Centaur r
    
    Current predictions for decay:
       SpaceCom: Jun  9 14:14 +-1d         1.7 N    35.3 W
       SatEvo  : Jun  9 14:57 +-12h
    The latest elset, showing it 1 sec early against yesterday's prediction,
    is:
    SAX Centaur r                                    223 x 222 km
    1 23858U 96027B   00159.44001157  .02512678  10903-1  15860-2 0  7756
    2 23858   3.9921  68.1660 0000952 172.0448 168.0776 16.18964334229172
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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