** There is a warning of a strong geomagnetic storm on June 8 and 9
following solar flares and an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection
yesterday. Expect drag rates to increase even further.
________________________________________________________
#23782 = 96- 7 B = NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r
The final decay analyses are:
SpaceCom: Jun 7 10:20 +-7m 6.2 S 117.6 W
SatEvo : Jun 7 10:17 -10m+80m 4.4 S 145.7 W
My prediction yesterday had an invalid uncertainty of "+-12h" in the
predicted decay time; the correct value should have been "+-4h".
The final elset...
NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r 695 x 103 km
1 23782U 96007B 00159.18468750 .76526310 -31378-4 10929-2 0 4645
2 23782 6.4685 44.3196 0436598 193.2114 73.9151 15.56056806 51538
... shows this running 65 sec late against yesterdays prediction.
My computed elsets near the end are:
NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r 520 x 100 km
1 23782U 96007B 00159.32782212 1.30088443 16937+1 13459-2 0 94609
2 23782 6.4885 43.3851 0313960 194.5615 164.5127 15.87186005 51566
NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r 417 x 99 km
1 23782U 96007B 00159.39032055 1.79313244 38891+1 14966-2 0 94609
2 23782 6.4877 42.8529 0239514 195.6156 163.6325 16.06073484 51576
NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r 253 x 95 km
1 23782U 96007B 00159.45194358 3.90339302 50000+2 19105-2 0 94606
2 23782 6.4861 42.3105 0120231 196.6900 162.9109 16.36918147 51587
I suspect that this decayed a little beyond perigee on the second of
these, perhaps over the Pacific to the SE of Hawaii. However, there is a
chance that it survived almost a full orbit beyond this point.
________________________________________________________
#23858 = 96- 27 B = SAX Centaur r
Current predictions for decay:
SpaceCom: Jun 9 14:14 +-1d 1.7 N 35.3 W
SatEvo : Jun 9 14:57 +-12h
The latest elset, showing it 1 sec early against yesterday's prediction,
is:
SAX Centaur r 223 x 222 km
1 23858U 96027B 00159.44001157 .02512678 10903-1 15860-2 0 7756
2 23858 3.9921 68.1660 0000952 172.0448 168.0776 16.18964334229172
See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Jun 07 2000 - 12:25:47 PDT