Decay watch: June 28
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 28 Jun 1999 21:00:20 +0100
Solar activity is now at a very high level, higher than at any time
during the current solar cycle. The SESC sunspot number for the 27th
was 341, while the 10.7 cm radio flux stood at 207 in the usual units,
suggesting that drag rates should be high too. Meantime, the decaying
Molniya r2 was denied a second reprieve...
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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 17 01:00 Jun 23 16:44 +-4d 46.6 S 44.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 20 05:29 Jun 24 05:35 +-2d 27.7 S 139.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 01:35 Jun 24 05:27 +-2d 56.8 S 102.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 08:42 Jun 24 05:17 +-2d 60.9 S 53.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 22 16:51 Jun 24 07:40 +-1d 47.4 S 88.3 E
SpaceCom Jun 23 05:19 Jun 24 05:39 +-15h 60.2 S 84.8 E
SpaceCom Jun 23 05:19 Jun 24 05:39 +-15h 60.2 S 84.8 E
SpaceCom Jun 23 21:52 Jun 24 05:55 +-5h 56.8 S 95.8 E
SpaceCom Jun 27 10:44 Jun 28 10:48 +-5h 35.4 S 36.4 E
SpaceCom Jun 28 04:46 Jun 28 10:50 +-4h 28.1 S 41.7 E
SpaceCom Jun 28 08:48 Jun 28 10:20 +-1h 26.1 S 98.8 W
SpaceCom Jun 28 14:57 Jun 28 10:20 +-1h 26.1 S 98.8 W
SatEvo Jun 17 19:35 Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo Jun 20 17:30 Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 21 20:20 Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo Jun 22 19:55 Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
SatEvo Jun 23 18:40 Jun 24 07:34 +-5h 61.3 S 22.8 E
SatEvo Jun 24 19:15 Jun 27 20:00 +-?
SatEvo Jun 25 22:30 Jun 28 11:55 +-20h
SatEvo Jun 26 19:00 Jun 28 13:39 +-14h
SatEvo Jun 27 18:45 Jun 28 12:01 +-6h 61.6 S 59.2 W
SatEvo Jun 28 18:40 Jun 28 10:32 +-25m 61.8 S 24.2 W
Final elset:
Moln 3-28 r2 313 x 78 km
1 16686U 86031D 99179.35395817 .99999999 91673-5 33605-3 0 5462
2 16686 61.7302 136.6770 0179350 268.4519 217.6436 16.28938049 85729
Note: The final elset has it running 43 seconds early against the
prediction I posted here yesterday. I estimate that this decayed
near perigee on the above orbit, near its southernmost point over
the far S Atlantic. SpaceCom put it a bit earlier on the rev, while
southbound over the SE Pacific.
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Object: #25670 = 99- 17 B = DSP 19 Titan 4 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 27 10:54 Jul 1 10:37 +-19h 22.2 S 171.6 W
SpaceCom Jun 28 17:18 Jul 1 15:31 +-2d 4.7 S 123.7 W
SatEvo Jun 27 18:50 Jul 2 09:07 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 28 19:45 Jul 2 04:38 +-16h
Latest elset (7 sec early against yesterday's prediction):
DSP 19 Titan4r 10.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 d 31 283 x 154 km
1 25670U 99017B 99179.64841814 .02010182 -73587-5 30750-3 0 1470
2 25670 28.6212 60.2637 0097263 289.6923 69.3193 16.20456219 12531
SatEvo prediction:
DSP 19 Titan4r 10.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 d 31 275 x 152 km
1 25670U 99017B 99180.01768384 .02364182 17590-2 32337-3 0 91475
2 25670 28.6209 57.3872 0092872 294.3665 64.6670 16.22196717 12592
DSP 19 Titan4r 10.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 d 31 252 x 147 km
1 25670U 99017B 99181.00037210 .03101765 35328-2 24325-3 0 91476
2 25670 28.6199 49.6951 0079765 306.8656 52.4058 16.27483604 12759
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/