Decay watch: June 26

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 26 Jun 1999 20:15:35 +0100

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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W
SpaceCom   Jun 20 05:29     Jun 24 05:35 +-2d        27.7 S   139.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 01:35     Jun 24 05:27 +-2d        56.8 S   102.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 08:42     Jun 24 05:17 +-2d        60.9 S    53.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun 22 16:51     Jun 24 07:40 +-1d        47.4 S    88.3 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 21:52     Jun 24 05:55 +-5h        56.8 S    95.8 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:30     Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:20     Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun 22 19:55     Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 23 18:40     Jun 24 07:34 +-5h        61.3 S    22.8 E
SatEvo     Jun 24 19:15     Jun 27 20:00 +-?
SatEvo     Jun 25 22:30     Jun 28 11:55 +-20h
SatEvo     Jun 26 19:00     Jun 28 13:39 +-14h

Latest elset (57 sec late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2                                     1140 x 91 km
1 16686U 86031D   99177.60625116  .22176799  63757-5  27072-3 0  5314
2 16686  61.7321 143.2421 0749694 262.5018 267.1851 14.84436946 85450

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     1060 x 89 km
1 16686U 86031D   99177.90856936  .23831717  26839-1  25215-3 0 95314
2 16686  61.7258 142.1878 0698022 262.6373  89.3829 14.97595456 85507
Moln 3-28 r2                                     979 x 88 km
1 16686U 86031D   99178.17459412  .26267963  34884-1  25588-3 0 95313
2 16686  61.7206 141.2415 0644096 262.7592  89.8790 15.10895346 85546
Moln 3-28 r2                                     891 x 88 km
1 16686U 86031D   99178.43818647  .29471258  47302-1  26125-3 0 95315
2 16686  61.7152 140.2846 0584870 262.8829  90.4341 15.25544400 85582

Note: This appears much better behaved now, but SpaceCom remains silent
on its decay.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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