Decay watch: June 25

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 25 Jun 1999 23:38:25 +0100

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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W
SpaceCom   Jun 20 05:29     Jun 24 05:35 +-2d        27.7 S   139.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 01:35     Jun 24 05:27 +-2d        56.8 S   102.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 08:42     Jun 24 05:17 +-2d        60.9 S    53.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun 22 16:51     Jun 24 07:40 +-1d        47.4 S    88.3 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 05:19     Jun 24 05:39 +-15h       60.2 S    84.8 E
SpaceCom   Jun 23 21:52     Jun 24 05:55 +-5h        56.8 S    95.8 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:30     Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:20     Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun 22 19:55     Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 23 18:40     Jun 24 07:34 +-5h        61.3 S    22.8 E
SatEvo     Jun 24 19:15     Jun 27 20:00 +-?
SatEvo     Jun 25 22:30     Jun 28 11:55 +-20h

Latest elset (5 min late against an extension of yesterday's 
prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2                                     1322 x 91 km
1 16686U 86031D   99176.89180503  .17696179  59931-5  23006-3 0  5258
2 16686  61.7382 145.6511 0869186 261.9405  88.2415 14.55921401 85355

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     1287 x 89 km
1 16686U 86031D   99177.02890344  .19824490  15674-1  23660-3 0 95253
2 16686  61.7363 145.1945 0847253 261.9989  88.3125 14.61638886 85378
Moln 3-28 r2                                     1216 x 89 km
1 16686U 86031D   99177.30161481  .21227200  18685-1  23789-3 0 95253
2 16686  61.7319 144.2752 0801483 262.1167  88.7200 14.72822826 85415

Note: SpaceCom is still in a state of shock over this decayer and has
not dared to make another prediction. Some of us are not so timid :)
The perigee height given by elsets over the past day has been 90-91 km,
though it is unclear whether the continued increase has been real or a 
correction after earlier incorrect values. Well done to Daniel Deak 
for his obs of last night.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/