Decay watch: June 23
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 23 Jun 1999 20:02:29 +0100
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #23558 = 86- 17 JE = GFZ 1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 17 00:38 Jun 23 13:22 +-4d 47.6 S 5.3 W
SpaceCom Jun 19 15:53 Jun 23 15:21 +-2d 14.9 N 96.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 20 18:00 Jun 23 13:52 +-2d 10.0 N 115.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 17:40 Jun 23 14:14 +-1d 50.7 N 152.9 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 06:57 Jun 23 02:10 +-12h 1.3 S 75.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 13:51 Jun 23 00:53 +-7h 30.8 N 26.2 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 18:42 Jun 22 23:52 +-6h 25.6 N 119.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 23 01:27 Jun 23 03:38 +-8h 1.7 N 95.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 23 05:29 Jun 23 03:38 +-8h 1.7 N 95.0 W
SatEvo Jun 17 19:30 Jun 23 18:00 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 20 17:15 Jun 23 16:44 +-16h
SatEvo Jun 21 20:00 Jun 23 15:59 +-10h
SatEvo Jun 22 19:25 Jun 23 00:41 +-3h 0.0 51.9 W
SatEvo Jun 23 18:20 Jun 23 02:08 +-3h 0.0 74.1 W
Final elset:
GFZ 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 d 153 x 145 km
1 23558U 86017JE 99173.54432378 .04702966 12612-4 10413-3 0 7754
2 23558 51.6200 231.9360 0006075 300.2980 59.6781 16.46260097763208
Note: SpaceCom appears to have lost this well before its decay. The
final elset is for the same rev as yesterday's "latest" elset but
suggests that the equator crossing came one second later.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 17 01:00 Jun 23 16:44 +-4d 46.6 S 44.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 20 05:29 Jun 24 05:35 +-2d 27.7 S 139.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 01:35 Jun 24 05:27 +-2d 56.8 S 102.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 08:42 Jun 24 05:17 +-2d 60.9 S 53.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 22 16:51 Jun 24 07:40 +-1d 47.4 S 88.3 E
SpaceCom Jun 23 05:19 Jun 24 05:39 +-15h 60.2 S 84.8 E
SatEvo Jun 17 19:35 Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo Jun 20 17:30 Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 21 20:20 Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo Jun 22 19:55 Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
SatEvo Jun 23 18:40 Jun 24 07:34 +-5h 61.3 S 22.8 E
Latest elset (7.3 min late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2 2255 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D 99174.69855183 .99999999 12127-4 11106-2 0 5031
2 16686 61.7686 152.5292 1443212 262.0427 81.5548 13.24858445 85041
SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2 1815 x 76 km
1 16686U 86031D 99174.92081488 1.55996348 63781+0 10685-2 0 95031
2 16686 61.7401 151.8954 1187436 262.1229 84.2639 13.85254624 85077
Moln 3-28 r2 1480 x 75 km
1 16686U 86031D 99175.06322195 1.91710515 11163+1 10899-2 0 95035
2 16686 61.7197 151.4540 0982214 262.1796 86.5750 14.34290090 85094
Moln 3-28 r2 1091 x 73 km
1 16686U 86031D 99175.20045012 2.62166313 27577+1 11245-2 0 95033
2 16686 61.6944 150.9932 0731270 262.2395 89.4029 14.95167339 85112
Moln 3-28 r2 854 x 72 km
1 16686U 86031D 99175.26683240 3.38740314 53339+1 11662-2 0 95031
2 16686 61.6829 150.7533 0571492 262.2711 91.2058 15.34441013 85121
Moln 3-28 r2 541 x 70 km
1 16686U 86031D 99175.33139780 5.55357324 25412+2 13003-2 0 95033
2 16686 61.6618 150.5040 0352702 262.3042 93.6771 15.88842458 85133
Note: I judge that decay is most likely near the perigee point of
the penultimate predicted orbit above. It is possible it may survive
into the next orbit and even until the following perigee. With the
period and apogee height changing so rapidly, it could be several
minutes early or late and several degrees off track.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/