Decay watch: June 22
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 22 Jun 1999 20:58:45 +0100
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Object: #23558 = 86- 17 JE = GFZ 1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 17 00:38 Jun 23 13:22 +-4d 47.6 S 5.3 W
SpaceCom Jun 19 15:53 Jun 23 15:21 +-2d 14.9 N 96.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 20 18:00 Jun 23 13:52 +-2d 10.0 N 115.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 17:40 Jun 23 14:14 +-1d 50.7 N 152.9 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 06:57 Jun 23 02:10 +-12h 1.3 S 75.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 13:51 Jun 23 00:53 +-7h 30.8 N 26.2 W
SpaceCom Jun 22 18:42 Jun 22 23:52 +-6h 25.6 N 119.1 E
SatEvo Jun 17 19:30 Jun 23 18:00 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 20 17:15 Jun 23 16:44 +-16h
SatEvo Jun 21 20:00 Jun 23 15:59 +-10h
SatEvo Jun 22 19:25 Jun 23 00:41 +-3h 0.0 51.9 W
Latest elset (49 sec early against yesterday's SatEvo prediction):
GFZ 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 d 154 x 144 km
1 23558U 86017JE 99173.54434521 .04984629 12651-4 10270-3 0 7747
2 23558 51.6085 231.9237 0007655 318.6016 41.5704 16.46450106763207
SatEvo prediction:
GFZ 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 d 139 x 131 km
1 23558U 86017JE 99173.84735255 .13017875 18849+0 10998-3 0 97744
2 23558 51.6071 230.1885 0005471 319.8986 40.0609 16.51650757763258
GFZ 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 d 133 x 127 km
1 23558U 86017JE 99173.90782343 .17811429 38644+0 11408-3 0 97744
2 23558 51.6066 229.8403 0004759 320.1589 39.8061 16.53480195763263
GFZ 1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 d 125 x 121 km
1 23558U 86017JE 99173.96821352 .30325877 13172+1 13168-3 0 97741
2 23558 51.6059 229.4915 0003754 320.4197 39.5529 16.56233492763277
Note: There was a 14-hour gap with no elsets since my last report,
during which the decay moved sharply earlier. I predict decay near
a northbound equator crossing near the Amazon delta at the end of the
final orbit above. SpaceCom place it less than halfway around the
orbit, over China.
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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 17 01:00 Jun 23 16:44 +-4d 46.6 S 44.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 20 05:29 Jun 24 05:35 +-2d 27.7 S 139.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 01:35 Jun 24 05:27 +-2d 56.8 S 102.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 21 08:42 Jun 24 05:17 +-2d 60.9 S 53.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 22 16:51 Jun 24 07:40 +-1d 47.4 S 88.3 E
SatEvo Jun 17 19:35 Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo Jun 20 17:30 Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 21 20:20 Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo Jun 22 19:55 Jun 24 05:31 +-11h
Latest elset (3.4 min late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2 3927 x 79 km
1 16686U 86031D 99173.71318052 .50134138 88390-5 68819-3 0 4900
2 16686 61.7676 154.8577 2295217 260.8555 72.6595 11.31570972 84921
SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2 3629 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D 99173.88782079 .87429905 13330+0 10228-2 0 94906
2 16686 61.7672 154.4957 2157474 260.9010 74.2414 11.62514921 84940
Moln 3-28 r2 3053 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D 99174.22370716 1.03928972 20370+0 10812-2 0 94904
2 16686 61.7504 153.7463 1872707 260.9954 77.4598 12.26404419 84980
Moln 3-28 r2 2449 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D 99174.54152313 1.29254928 34998+0 11685-2 0 94901
2 16686 61.7127 152.9567 1551716 261.0967 81.0856 12.99773268 85022
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/