Decay watch: June 22

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 22 Jun 1999 20:58:45 +0100

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Object: #23558 = 86- 17 JE = GFZ 1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 00:38     Jun 23 13:22 +-4d        47.6 S     5.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun 19 15:53     Jun 23 15:21 +-2d        14.9 N    96.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 20 18:00     Jun 23 13:52 +-2d        10.0 N   115.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 17:40     Jun 23 14:14 +-1d        50.7 N   152.9 W
SpaceCom   Jun 22 06:57     Jun 23 02:10 +-12h        1.3 S    75.0 W
SpaceCom   Jun 22 13:51     Jun 23 00:53 +-7h        30.8 N    26.2 W
SpaceCom   Jun 22 18:42     Jun 22 23:52 +-6h        25.6 N   119.1 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:30     Jun 23 18:00 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:15     Jun 23 16:44 +-16h
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:00     Jun 23 15:59 +-10h
SatEvo     Jun 22 19:25     Jun 23 00:41 +-3h         0.0      51.9 W

Latest elset (49 sec early against yesterday's SatEvo prediction):
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            154 x 144 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.54434521  .04984629  12651-4  10270-3 0  7747
2 23558  51.6085 231.9237 0007655 318.6016  41.5704 16.46450106763207

SatEvo prediction:
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            139 x 131 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.84735255  .13017875  18849+0  10998-3 0 97744
2 23558  51.6071 230.1885 0005471 319.8986  40.0609 16.51650757763258
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            133 x 127 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.90782343  .17811429  38644+0  11408-3 0 97744
2 23558  51.6066 229.8403 0004759 320.1589  39.8061 16.53480195763263
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            125 x 121 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99173.96821352  .30325877  13172+1  13168-3 0 97741
2 23558  51.6059 229.4915 0003754 320.4197  39.5529 16.56233492763277

Note: There was a 14-hour gap with no elsets since my last report, 
during which the decay moved sharply earlier. I predict decay near
a northbound equator crossing near the Amazon delta at the end of the 
final orbit above. SpaceCom place it less than halfway around the 
orbit, over China.
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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W
SpaceCom   Jun 20 05:29     Jun 24 05:35 +-2d        27.7 S   139.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 01:35     Jun 24 05:27 +-2d        56.8 S   102.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun 21 08:42     Jun 24 05:17 +-2d        60.9 S    53.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun 22 16:51     Jun 24 07:40 +-1d        47.4 S    88.3 E

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun 20 17:30     Jun 24 09:52 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun 21 20:20     Jun 24 05:27 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun 22 19:55     Jun 24 05:31 +-11h

Latest elset (3.4 min late against yesterday's prediction):
Moln 3-28 r2                                     3927 x 79 km
1 16686U 86031D   99173.71318052  .50134138  88390-5  68819-3 0  4900
2 16686  61.7676 154.8577 2295217 260.8555  72.6595 11.31570972 84921

SatEvo prediction:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     3629 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D   99173.88782079  .87429905  13330+0  10228-2 0 94906
2 16686  61.7672 154.4957 2157474 260.9010  74.2414 11.62514921 84940
Moln 3-28 r2                                     3053 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D   99174.22370716 1.03928972  20370+0  10812-2 0 94904
2 16686  61.7504 153.7463 1872707 260.9954  77.4598 12.26404419 84980
Moln 3-28 r2                                     2449 x 77 km
1 16686U 86031D   99174.54152313 1.29254928  34998+0  11685-2 0 94901
2 16686  61.7127 152.9567 1551716 261.0967  81.0856 12.99773268 85022
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/