Decay watch: June 17

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 17 Jun 1999 20:53:57 +0100

A trip means that I'll be unable to post further decay watch notices
until late on Sunday. My dklist.tle and select.tle files, with current 
elsets for both of these, should continue to be updated, however.
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Object: #23558 = 86- 17 JE = GFZ 1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 00:38     Jun 23 13:22 +-4d        47.6 S     5.3 W

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:30     Jun 23 18:00 +-1.3d

Latest elset:
GFZ 1            0.3  0.0  0.0 11.0 d            196 x 189 km
1 23558U 86017JE  99168.59623160  .00677786  00000-0  14238-3 0  7440
2 23558  51.6178 259.7237 0005467 329.3640  30.7789 16.30074744762394

Note: Eclipse entry occurs near southern apex at about 17:30 local 
time. It is better placed near its exit from the Earth's shadow
around 44 deg N at 02:30 local time.
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Object: #16686 = 86- 31 D = Molniya 3-28 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 17 01:00     Jun 23 16:44 +-4d        46.6 S    44.7 W

SatEvo     Jun 17 19:35     Jun 24 00:00 +-2d

Two rather different latest elsets, for the same rev and with identical 
issue numbers:
Moln 3-28 r2                                     11493 x 74 km
1 16686U 86031D   99167.64898046  .20570319  16569-5  56893-3 0  4620
2 16686  61.7806 162.3989 4694180 259.4227  46.3076  6.47361880 84414
Moln 3-28 r2                                     11451 x 103 km
1 16686U 86031D   99167.64941926  .23993064  00000-0  28626-2 0  4625
2 16686  61.7400 162.4254 4667965 259.6673  46.4045  6.47875377 84438

Note: Omitted from my last SatEvo decay list and only added to
my dklist.tle and select.tle files yesterday (thanks to Björn Gimle 
for the alert). The next elset is overdue - could this be 
temporarily lost? Should be well placed near apogee in the N 
hemisphere night sky.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/