Decay watch: Jun 14 (Meteor 1-2 r)
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 14 Jun 1999 19:37:04 +0100
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Object: #4120 = 69- 84 B = Meteor 1-2 Vostok r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 11 00:05 Jun 15 00:31 +-2d 6.8 N 0.5 E
SpaceCom Jun 12 00:20 Jun 15 00:34 +-2d 1.4 S 1.2 E
SpaceCom Jun 12 23:34 Jun 14 20:45 +-1d 31.9 S 127.1 W
SpaceCom Jun 14 01:05 Jun 15 00:45 +-14h 49.4 S 8.4 E
SpaceCom Jun 14 12:04 Jun 15 00:33 +-8h 2.3 N 0.8 E
SpaceCom Jun 14 17:55 Jun 15 00:24 +-5h 37.9 N 3.5 W
SatEvo Jun 9 21:45 Jun 14 07:36 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 10 21:30 Jun 14 10:34 +-19h
SatEvo Jun 11 18:45 Jun 14 19:24 +-15h
SatEvo Jun 12 17:00 Jun 14 19:23 +-11h
SatEvo Jun 13 19:00 Jun 14 20:18 +-5h 43.6 S 72.8 E
SatEvo Jun 14 18:00 Jun 15 00:30 +-2h 0.0 1.0 E
SatEvo Jun 14 18:25 Jun 14 23:46 +-90m 0.0 168.0 W
Latest elset (28 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Meteor 1-2 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 161 x 148 km
1 04120U 69084B 99165.68721771 .09036042 -96110-6 27252-3 0 8081
2 04120 81.1916 91.8074 0009753 242.7963 117.2441 16.44376448625731
SatEvo prediction:
Meteor 1-2 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 156 x 144 km
1 04120U 69084B 99165.74801749 .13530795 14897+0 30160-3 0 98086
2 04120 81.1911 91.7220 0009038 242.5502 117.3578 16.46035853625748
Meteor 1-2 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 150 x 140 km
1 04120U 69084B 99165.80878002 .16936393 25048+0 27650-3 0 98086
2 04120 81.1905 91.6364 0008191 242.3037 117.6132 16.47869469625758
Meteor 1-2 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 143 x 134 km
1 04120U 69084B 99165.86946611 .23467885 54658+0 26227-3 0 98085
2 04120 81.1897 91.5508 0007124 242.0568 117.8711 16.50269966625764
Meteor 1-2 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 133 x 125 km
1 04120U 69084B 99165.93004492 .41530203 19786+1 27251-3 0 98082
2 04120 81.1885 91.4649 0005570 241.8092 118.1345 16.53980143625776
Note: As Harro and SpaceCom agree, the decay has slipped. A few minutes
ago I was predicting re-entry near a southbound equator crossing over
the Gulf of Guinea, after passing over E Iceland (00:14 UTC), Ireland
(00:16), the Bay of Biscay (00:19), Madrid, Spain, (00:20) and across
W Africa from the Morocco/Algeria border (00:21) to Ghana (00:28).
However, the latest elset (just published) has it running slightly
early and the decay looks more likely near the preceding northbound
equator crossing over the mid-Pacific.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/