Decay watch: Jun 13 (last day of Meteor 1-2 r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 13 Jun 1999 20:21:01 +0100

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Object: #4120 = 69- 84 B = Meteor 1-2 Vostok r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun 11 00:05     Jun 15 00:31 +-2d         6.8 N     0.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 00:20     Jun 15 00:34 +-2d         1.4 S     1.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun 12 23:34     Jun 15 20:45 +-1d        31.9 S   127.1 W

SatEvo     Jun  9 21:45     Jun 14 07:36 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun 10 21:30     Jun 14 10:34 +-19h
SatEvo     Jun 11 18:45     Jun 14 19:24 +-15h
SatEvo     Jun 12 17:00     Jun 14 19:23 +-11h
SatEvo     Jun 13 19:00     Jun 14 20:18 +-5h        43.6 S    72.8 E

Latest elset (4.4 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            189 x 181 km
1 04120U 69084B   99164.70956457  .03607308 -94330-6  62372-3 0  7990
2 04120  81.1951  93.1549 0006193 216.1632 143.9973 16.32948547625575

SatEvo prediction:
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            181 x 174 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.01568980  .04961642  15811-1  65313-3 0 97998
2 04120  81.1942  92.7318 0005524 214.9432 145.0204 16.35637798625627
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            173 x 167 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.26021323  .06330027  23781-1  61920-3 0 97994
2 04120  81.1932  92.3925 0004874 213.9650 146.0037 16.38375672625666
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            163 x 158 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.50426801  .09370351  71423-1  55372-3 0 97998
2 04120  81.1919  92.0523 0004053 212.9844 146.9903 16.42063044625703
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            144 x 140 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.74759579  .25596980  68810+0  36917-3 0 97999
2 04120  81.1897  91.7107 0002637 211.9998 147.9841 16.49094464625740
Meteor 1-2 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            131 x 129 km
1 04120U 69084B   99165.80820653  .56426350  35038+1  40506-3 0 97991
2 04120  81.1885  91.6249 0001861 211.7525 148.2363 16.53538443625754

Note: I predict decay on a southbound leg near Kerguelen in the 
S Indian Ocean following an equator crossing at 20:07 near 67.1 deg E. 
SpaceCom's latest prediction puts it further along the same orbit. 
The uncertainty is still several orbits.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/