Decay watch: June 7 (Long March r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 7 Jun 1999 21:21:39 +0100

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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun  3 20:14     Jun  7 20:47 +-3d        21.1 N    19.9 E
SpaceCom   Jun  4 23:41     Jun  7 20:25 +-2d        11.7 N    79.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun  5 22:29     Jun  7 23:00 +-1d        26.4 S   135.1 E
SpaceCom   Jun  6 23:23     Jun  7 23:52 +-15h       22.1 N    31.2 W
SpaceCom   Jun  7 13:34     Jun  8 01:54 +-9h        24.9 S    59.8 E

SatEvo     Jun  4 21:45     Jun  8 07:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun  5 12:25     Jun  9 02:14 +-1.3d
SatEvo     Jun  6 15:40     Jun  8 06:32 +-15h
SatEvo     Jun  7 20.05     Jun  8 05:02 +-3h        20.2 S    75.7 E

Latest elset (70 seconds early on yesterday's prediction):
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  429 x 109 km
1 23186U 94043B   99158.78812237  .25143873 -90832-5  34259-3 0  7030
2 23186  26.5384  97.7770 0240760 303.5171  55.6875 16.01872750 68395

SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  396 x 114 km
1 23186U 94043B   99158.85013639  .35874883  18571+0  57487-3 0 97029
2 23186  26.5347  97.3019 0212153 302.7849  55.1888 16.07139763 68401
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  311 x 111 km
1 23186U 94043B   99159.03562267  .54230452  60050+0  61951-3 0 97025
2 23186  26.5318  95.8426 0151637 305.2334  53.3568 16.23207646 68432
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  272 x 109 km
1 23186U 94043B   99159.09699815  .69646984  11843+1  65416-3 0 97025
2 23186  26.5306  95.3513 0123927 306.0576  52.8008 16.30700254 68444
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  219 x 106 km
1 23186U 94043B   99159.15805963 1.09938396  40109+1  73302-3 0 97021
2 23186  26.5291  94.8565 0086143 306.8879  52.3257 16.41149777 68451

Note: No Q adjustments this time, though I suspect the perigee in the
latest elset is too low. The predicted final rev carries it ESE-bound
over Venezuela around 04:26 UTC and over northern S Africa 25m later.
Decay is more likely in the region of perigee over the middle of the
Indian Ocean.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/