Decay watch: June 7 (Long March r)
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 7 Jun 1999 21:21:39 +0100
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 3 20:14 Jun 7 20:47 +-3d 21.1 N 19.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 4 23:41 Jun 7 20:25 +-2d 11.7 N 79.3 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 22:29 Jun 7 23:00 +-1d 26.4 S 135.1 E
SpaceCom Jun 6 23:23 Jun 7 23:52 +-15h 22.1 N 31.2 W
SpaceCom Jun 7 13:34 Jun 8 01:54 +-9h 24.9 S 59.8 E
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 8 07:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 5 12:25 Jun 9 02:14 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 6 15:40 Jun 8 06:32 +-15h
SatEvo Jun 7 20.05 Jun 8 05:02 +-3h 20.2 S 75.7 E
Latest elset (70 seconds early on yesterday's prediction):
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 429 x 109 km
1 23186U 94043B 99158.78812237 .25143873 -90832-5 34259-3 0 7030
2 23186 26.5384 97.7770 0240760 303.5171 55.6875 16.01872750 68395
SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 396 x 114 km
1 23186U 94043B 99158.85013639 .35874883 18571+0 57487-3 0 97029
2 23186 26.5347 97.3019 0212153 302.7849 55.1888 16.07139763 68401
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 311 x 111 km
1 23186U 94043B 99159.03562267 .54230452 60050+0 61951-3 0 97025
2 23186 26.5318 95.8426 0151637 305.2334 53.3568 16.23207646 68432
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 272 x 109 km
1 23186U 94043B 99159.09699815 .69646984 11843+1 65416-3 0 97025
2 23186 26.5306 95.3513 0123927 306.0576 52.8008 16.30700254 68444
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 219 x 106 km
1 23186U 94043B 99159.15805963 1.09938396 40109+1 73302-3 0 97021
2 23186 26.5291 94.8565 0086143 306.8879 52.3257 16.41149777 68451
Note: No Q adjustments this time, though I suspect the perigee in the
latest elset is too low. The predicted final rev carries it ESE-bound
over Venezuela around 04:26 UTC and over northern S Africa 25m later.
Decay is more likely in the region of perigee over the middle of the
Indian Ocean.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/