Decay watch: Jun 6
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 6 Jun 1999 16:58:59 +0100
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Object: #25728 = 99- 24 B = Orion 3 Delta 3 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 1 22:01 Jun 5 22:06 +-3d 7.2 S 173.4 E
SpaceCom Jun 2 17:20 Jun 5 16:10 +-2d 17.2 S 75.2 E
SpaceCom Jun 3 17:42 Jun 5 17:43 +-10h 21.2 S 89.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 4 18:37 Jun 5 19:05 +-17h 7.1 S 140.4 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 09:41 Jun 5 20:48 +-7h 20.0 S 109.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 14:32 Jun 5 21:00 +-5h 24.9 S 57.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 18:33 Jun 5 21:00 +-2h 24.9 S 57.7 W
SpaceCom Jun 6 09:31 Jun 5 21:25 +-37m 21.2 N 33.8 E
SatEvo Jun 1 19:30 Jun 6 05:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo Jun 2 19:15 Jun 5 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 3 19:30 Jun 5 23:13 +-12h
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 5 23:13 +-8h
SatEvo Jun 5 14:00 Jun 5 23:10 +-4h 22.1 N 97.4 E
SatEvo Jun 6 14:40 Jun 5 21:41 +-45m 22.6 N 118.5 E
Final elset (45 sec early on yesterday's prediction):
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 211 x 114 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.82142459 .37214362 -68095-5 33454-3 0 1045
2 25728 29.4714 205.3720 0073554 128.4019 232.2371 16.41266835 4737
Note: The SatEvo predictions were consistently too late and the program
is not (yet) happy with high-eccentricity, low-perigee decayers.
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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 3 20:14 Jun 7 20:47 +-3d 21.1 N 19.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 4 23:41 Jun 7 20:25 +-2d 11.7 N 79.3 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 22:29 Jun 7 23:00 +-1d 26.4 S 135.1 E
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 8 07:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 5 12:25 Jun 9 02:14 +-1.3d
SatEvo Jun 6 15:40 Jun 8 06:32 +-15h
Latest elset (111 seconds early on yesterday's prediction):
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 709 x 121 km
1 23186U 94043B 99157.51906513 .15585863 -92288-5 54638-3 0 6960
2 23186 26.5500 107.1875 0432694 286.2922 69.0036 15.50524144 68197
SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 616 x 122 km
1 23186U 94043B 99158.03156245 .17629496 28463-1 58734-3 0 96969
2 23186 26.5470 103.4685 0366011 292.5306 63.6364 15.66469347 68279
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 498 x 122 km
1 23186U 94043B 99158.53815150 .24226476 66446-1 69323-3 0 96969
2 23186 26.5434 99.6953 0281410 298.8603 58.3442 15.87198293 68350
Note: Another high-eccentricity, low-perigee object and, as with the
Delta, SatEvo is showing a later decay than does SpaceCom. I have
adjusted SatEvo's "Q-factor" for the prediction to better fit the
decay over the past day.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/