SatEvo decay list #78
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 6 Jun 1999 15:50:27 +0100
SatEvo decay list #78 (issued 1999 June 6)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects
are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by
1999 July 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers
are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via
my SatEvo page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle,
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) -----
Predicted Actual?
25763 79-104 E CAT 1 Ariane 1 deb May 16
14492 77- 65 FH Himawari 1 Delta deb May 19? Notes 1,2
25456 87- 68 CD Meteor 2-16 deb May 20 Note 2
25697 89-100 AS C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb May 21 Note 2
25742 99- 27 C Nimiq 1 Proton platform May 21.60
25741 99- 27 B Nimiq 1 Proton r May 22.90
8538 72- 58 GM Landsat 1 Delta deb May 23
22497 92- 93 GG C 2227 Zenit deb May 23 Note 2
19532 88- 89 B NOAA 11 deb May 24
25708 89-100 BD C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb May 29 Note 2
13469 81- 53 FR Cosmos 1275 deb May 30
25139 98- 2 F Skynet 4D Delta 2 deb May 30
25683 99- 20 B Landsat 7 Delta 2 r May 30.89
24319 96- 49 E FAST Pegasus deb June 1
25252 87- 68 BV Meteor 2-16 deb June 1? Note 1
25745 99- 28 B USA 144 Titan 4 r June 1.50
5432 70- 89 BY Cosmos 374 deb June 2 Note 2
20352 89- 96 A Granat June 3.1? Notes 2,3
20055 89- 43 D Molniya 3-35 r2 June 3.93
25055 78- 64 J Seasat 1 deb June 4 Note 2
25713 89-100 BJ C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 4 Note 2
25728 99- 24 B Orion 3 Delta 3 r June 5.90
24162 94- 29 HM STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 7
23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r June 8
25690 86- 17 ND Mir deb June 8
25185 87- 68 L Meteor 2-16 deb June 9
25716 89-100 BM C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 10
25701 89-100 AW C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 12
24203 94- 29 KE STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 14
25700 89-100 AV C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 16
4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r June 15
24088 94- 29 EK STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 17
25718 89-100 BP C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 18
21521 75- 52 GS Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb June 20
22948 83- 75 AM Cosmos 1484 deb June 20
23558 86- 17 JE GFZ 1 June 21
24173 94- 29 HY STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 21
24609 94- 29 ZM STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 21
12280 78- 26 DZ Landsat 3 Delta deb June 22
23690 86- 17 JM Mir deb June 22
24096 94- 29 ET STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 23
24589 94- 29 YR STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 24
25711 89-100 BG C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 24
21073 90-105 S DMSP F10 deb June 26
24001 94- 29 AW STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 26
24248 94- 29 LX STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 26
24490 94- 29 UP STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 26
25710 89-100 BF C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 26
25687 86- 17 NA Mir deb June 27
19173 64- 6 S Elektron 1 deb June 29
25719 89-100 BQ C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb June 29
23540 83- 75 BD Cosmos 1484 deb June 30
24193 94- 29 JU STEP-2 Pegasus deb June 30
22902 83- 75 U Cosmos 1484 deb July 1
25670 99- 17 B DSP 19 Titan 4 r July 1
23311 85-118 W C 1710 Proton deb July 2
12133 81- 2 A Molniya 3-14 July 3
25198 87- 68 Z Meteor 2-16 deb July 3
24003 94- 29 AY STEP-2 Pegasus deb July 4
25704 89-100 AZ C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb July 8
25703 89-100 AY C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb July 8
25686 86- 17 MZ Mir deb July 13
14168 83- 65 C Galaxy 1 PAM D r July 20
25685 99- 21 A Sputnik 99 August 3
25625 99- 4 E Glblstar 36 Soyuz r1 August 19
15076 84- 63 E Raduga 15 aux motor September
22878 93- 68 B GPS 2-23 Delta r1 September
25500 98- 25 F C 2350 aux motor September
4222 69- 97 B AZUR Scout r October
24972 97- 57 B IRS-1D r October
25550 98- 69 B SAC-A October
25653 99- 12 E Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1 October
24744 97- 10 A Zeya November
22016 92- 39 C Navstar 26 Del 2 r2 December
24832 97- 28 E C 2344 SOZ ullage r December
25551 98- 69 C MightySat December
25680 99- 19 E Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1 December
1844 65-106 B Cosmos 100 r 2000 Jan - Feb
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 2000 Jan - Feb
24291 96- 50 A Microsat 2000 Jan - Feb
25014 97- 63 B STEP M4 Pegasus r 2000 Jan - Feb
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r 2000 Jan - Feb
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r 2000 Mar - Apr
16609 86- 17 A Mir 2000 Mar - Apr
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 2000 Mar - Apr
Notes
1. No recent elsets.
2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
3. The final elset for Granat is dated 1999 May 21. It is possible that
this decayed at the following perigee at May 25.9 or the next one at
May 30.0. My analyses over recent months had yielded a consistent
decay prediction for June 3, and I'll stick with this until persuaded
otherwise.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/