Decay watch: Jun 5
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 5 Jun 1999 15:32:32 +0100
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Object: #25728 = 99- 24 B = Orion 3 Delta 3 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 1 22:01 Jun 5 22:06 +-3d 7.2 S 173.4 E
SpaceCom Jun 2 17:20 Jun 5 16:10 +-2d 17.2 S 75.2 E
SpaceCom Jun 3 17:42 Jun 5 17:43 +-10h 21.2 S 89.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 4 18:37 Jun 5 19:05 +-17h 7.1 S 140.4 W
SpaceCom Jun 5 09:41 Jun 5 20:48 +-7h 20.0 S 109.7 W
SatEvo Jun 1 19:30 Jun 6 05:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo Jun 2 19:15 Jun 5 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 3 19:30 Jun 5 23:13 +-12h
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 6 23:13 +-8h
SatEvo Jun 5 14:00 Jun 6 23:10 +-4h 22.1 N 97.4 E
Latest elset (34 sec early on yesterday's prediction):
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 347 x 134 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.26857625 .14080445 -62401-5 62166-3 0 1013
2 25728 29.4658 209.6854 0161073 123.0525 238.5684 16.12273955 4641
SatEvo prediction:
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 278 x 129 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.63837863 .23327555 14189+0 62148-3 0 91014
2 25728 29.4632 206.8388 0112786 127.6139 233.4154 16.25894187 4705
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 246 x 127 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.76085446 .30582611 28950+0 61008-3 0 91019
2 25728 29.4621 205.8820 0090537 129.1471 231.6610 16.32391155 4722
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 201 x 122 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.88274381 .49999441 95766+0 59445-3 0 91014
2 25728 29.4605 204.9194 0060382 130.6897 229.8365 16.41710985 4746
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 168 x 115 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.94336808 .79264044 36579+1 52628-3 0 91015
2 25728 29.4592 204.4348 0041038 131.4662 228.8866 16.49122181 4752
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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 3 20:14 Jun 7 20:47 +-3d 21.1 N 19.9 E
SpaceCom Jun 4 23:41 Jun 7 20:25 +-2d 11.7 N 79.3 W
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 8 07:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 5 12:25 Jun 9 02:14 +-1.3d
Latest elset (25 seconds early on yesterday's prediction):
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 896 x 123 km
1 23186U 94043B 99156.21747601 .10138007 -90081-5 45541-3 0 6878
2 23186 26.5494 116.3479 0561174 271.2911 82.3295 15.18758254 67996
SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 802 x 122 km
1 23186U 94043B 99157.00205565 .10929868 60451-2 42529-3 0 96873
2 23186 26.5463 110.9068 0496795 280.4184 74.0223 15.34770376 68117
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 733 x 121 km
1 23186U 94043B 99157.52034271 .11974504 74496-2 41132-3 0 96875
2 23186 26.5441 107.2388 0449760 286.5717 68.5371 15.46622603 68198
Note: In theory, this rocket should be affected very strongly by the
transition in atmospheric flow regime as the perigee falls. The effect
should be for the drag to increase more slowly than would otherwise be
the case and for the lifetime to be extended. The prediction attempts
to model this effect (assuming a length of 7.5 m for the rocket).
Neglecting this effect, I get a decay at Jun 8 12:41 UTC, closer to,
but still much later than SpaceCom's prediction.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/