Decay watch: Jun 4
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 4 Jun 1999 23:09:01 +0100
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Object: #20055 = 89- 43 D = Molniya 3-35 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 30 09:12 Jun 5 07:36 +-4d 14.4 S 136.3 E
SpaceCom May 31 00:19 Jun 3 17:01 +-2d 21.3 S 161.6 E
SpaceCom Jun 1 00:04 Jun 3 17:21 +-2d 4.4 S 165.5 E
SpaceCom Jun 1 23:58 Jun 4 00:28 +-1d 55.3 S 13.5 E
SpaceCom Jun 2 23:51 Jun 3 22:22 +-14h 59.8 S 29.3 W
SpaceCom Jun 3 09:29 Jun 3 21:53 +-8h 25.2 N 94.6 W
SpaceCom Jun 3 10:39 Jun 3 21:16 +-2h 9.4 S 104.0 E
SpaceCom Jun 3 16:08 Jun 3 22:17 +-1h 49.6 S 51.2 W
SpaceCom Jun 3 21:08 Jun 3 22:25 +-1h 63.1 S 9.5 W
SpaceCom Jun 4 02:55 Jun 3 22:26 +-24m 63.5 S 0.2 W
SatEvo May 30 13:30 Jun 3 15:00 +-2d
SatEvo May 31 18:55 Jun 4 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo Jun 1 19:10 Jun 4 00:24 +-18h
SatEvo Jun 2 19:00 Jun 4 00:00 +-9h
SatEvo Jun 3 18:20 Jun 3 22:22 +-1h 59.3 S 32.2 W
SatEvo Jun 4 21:30 Jun 3 22:21 +-15m 61.3 S 23.2 W
Final elset (70 sec early on yesterday's prediction):
Molniya 3-35 r2 429 x 83 km
1 20055U 89043D 99154.88711969 .99999999 70801-5 16654-2 0 9215
2 20055 63.4153 318.4026 0261058 256.9967 104.2668 16.06610535 56917
Note: Like SpaceCom, I place decay over the far S Atlantic.
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Object: #25728 = 99- 24 B = Orion 3 Delta 3 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 1 22:01 Jun 5 22:06 +-3d 7.2 S 173.4 E
SpaceCom Jun 2 17:20 Jun 5 16:10 +-2d 17.2 S 75.2 E
SpaceCom Jun 3 17:42 Jun 5 17:43 +-10h 21.2 S 89.0 W
SpaceCom Jun 4 18:37 Jun 5 19:05 +-17h 7.1 S 140.4 W
SatEvo Jun 1 19:30 Jun 6 05:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo Jun 2 19:15 Jun 5 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo Jun 3 19:30 Jun 5 23:13 +-12h
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 6 23:13 +-8h
Latest elset (5 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 440 x 139 km
1 25728U 99024B 99155.52162086 .09567109 -55837-5 73613-3 0 969
2 25728 29.4636 215.3097 0225086 113.7542 248.6867 15.94628540 4525
SatEvo prediction:
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 387 x 137 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.02069553 .11376827 20861-1 67300-3 0 90967
2 25728 29.4617 211.5722 0187887 119.7433 242.1392 16.04556952 4608
Ori 3 Delta 3 r 317 x 133 km
1 25728U 99024B 99156.51618959 .16468801 57141-1 62468-3 0 90961
2 25728 29.4591 207.8000 0139587 125.7882 235.5172 16.17937212 4681
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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Jun 3 20:14 Jun 7 20:47 +-3d 21.1 N 19.9 E
SatEvo Jun 4 21:45 Jun 8 07:00 +-1d
Latest elset:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 979 x 125 km
1 23186U 94043B 99155.49125470 .08604422 -88798-5 44320-3 0 6817
2 23186 26.5458 121.2764 0616180 263.0568 89.9456 15.04996397 67880
SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 924 x 124 km
1 23186U 94043B 99156.02023012 .08978638 38850-2 43311-3 0 96817
2 23186 26.5440 117.6978 0579302 269.0600 84.3016 15.14039016 67961
APStar 1 CZ-3 r 866 x 123 km
1 23186U 94043B 99156.54592180 .09652802 46980-2 42335-3 0 96812
2 23186 26.5421 114.0922 0540173 275.1088 78.7513 15.23822276 68049
Note: This enters eclipse around 26 deg N latitude at ~21h local time
at a height of ~840 km (but falling). Eclipse exit occurs near
16 deg S at ~05h local at a height of ~270 km.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/