Decay watch: Jun 4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 4 Jun 1999 23:09:01 +0100

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Object: #20055 = 89- 43 D = Molniya 3-35 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 30 09:12     Jun  5 07:36 +-4d        14.4 S   136.3 E
SpaceCom   May 31 00:19     Jun  3 17:01 +-2d        21.3 S   161.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun  1 00:04     Jun  3 17:21 +-2d         4.4 S   165.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun  1 23:58     Jun  4 00:28 +-1d        55.3 S    13.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun  2 23:51     Jun  3 22:22 +-14h       59.8 S    29.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun  3 09:29     Jun  3 21:53 +-8h        25.2 N    94.6 W
SpaceCom   Jun  3 10:39     Jun  3 21:16 +-2h         9.4 S   104.0 E
SpaceCom   Jun  3 16:08     Jun  3 22:17 +-1h        49.6 S    51.2 W
SpaceCom   Jun  3 21:08     Jun  3 22:25 +-1h        63.1 S     9.5 W
SpaceCom   Jun  4 02:55     Jun  3 22:26 +-24m       63.5 S     0.2 W

SatEvo     May 30 13:30     Jun  3 15:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May 31 18:55     Jun  4 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun  1 19:10     Jun  4 00:24 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun  2 19:00     Jun  4 00:00 +-9h
SatEvo     Jun  3 18:20     Jun  3 22:22 +-1h        59.3 S    32.2 W
SatEvo     Jun  4 21:30     Jun  3 22:21 +-15m       61.3 S    23.2 W

Final elset (70 sec early on yesterday's prediction):
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  429 x 83 km
1 20055U 89043D   99154.88711969  .99999999  70801-5  16654-2 0  9215
2 20055  63.4153 318.4026 0261058 256.9967 104.2668 16.06610535 56917

Note: Like SpaceCom, I place decay over the far S Atlantic.
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Object: #25728 = 99- 24 B = Orion 3 Delta 3 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun  1 22:01     Jun  5 22:06 +-3d         7.2 S   173.4 E
SpaceCom   Jun  2 17:20     Jun  5 16:10 +-2d        17.2 S    75.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun  3 17:42     Jun  5 17:43 +-10h       21.2 S    89.0 W
SpaceCom   Jun  4 18:37     Jun  5 19:05 +-17h        7.1 S   140.4 W

SatEvo     Jun  1 19:30     Jun  6 05:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jun  2 19:15     Jun  5 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun  3 19:30     Jun  5 23:13 +-12h
SatEvo     Jun  4 21:45     Jun  6 23:13 +-8h

Latest elset (5 sec late on yesterday's prediction):
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  440 x 139 km
1 25728U 99024B   99155.52162086  .09567109 -55837-5  73613-3 0   969
2 25728  29.4636 215.3097 0225086 113.7542 248.6867 15.94628540  4525

SatEvo prediction:
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  387 x 137 km
1 25728U 99024B   99156.02069553  .11376827  20861-1  67300-3 0 90967
2 25728  29.4617 211.5722 0187887 119.7433 242.1392 16.04556952  4608
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  317 x 133 km
1 25728U 99024B   99156.51618959  .16468801  57141-1  62468-3 0 90961
2 25728  29.4591 207.8000 0139587 125.7882 235.5172 16.17937212  4681
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Object: #23186 = 94- 43 B = APStar 1 Long March (CZ-3) r 

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun  3 20:14     Jun  7 20:47 +-3d        21.1 N    19.9 E

SatEvo     Jun  4 21:45     Jun  8 07:00 +-1d

Latest elset:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  979 x 125 km
1 23186U 94043B   99155.49125470  .08604422 -88798-5  44320-3 0  6817
2 23186  26.5458 121.2764 0616180 263.0568  89.9456 15.04996397 67880

SatEvo prediction:
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  924 x 124 km
1 23186U 94043B   99156.02023012  .08978638  38850-2  43311-3 0 96817
2 23186  26.5440 117.6978 0579302 269.0600  84.3016 15.14039016 67961
APStar 1 CZ-3 r                                  866 x 123 km
1 23186U 94043B   99156.54592180  .09652802  46980-2  42335-3 0 96812
2 23186  26.5421 114.0922 0540173 275.1088  78.7513 15.23822276 68049

Note: This enters eclipse around 26 deg N latitude at ~21h local time
at a height of ~840 km (but falling). Eclipse exit occurs near 
16 deg S at ~05h local at a height of ~270 km.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/