Decay watch: Jun 3

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 3 Jun 1999 20:38:19 +0100

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Object: #20055 = 89- 43 D = Molniya 3-35 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May 30 09:12     Jun  5 07:36 +-4d        14.4 S   136.3 E
SpaceCom   May 31 00:19     Jun  3 17:01 +-2d        21.3 S   161.6 E
SpaceCom   Jun  1 00:04     Jun  3 17:21 +-2d         4.4 S   165.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun  1 23:58     Jun  4 00:28 +-1d        55.3 S    13.5 E
SpaceCom   Jun  2 23:51     Jun  3 22:22 +-14h       59.8 S    29.3 W
SpaceCom   Jun  3 09:29     Jun  3 21:53 +-8h        25.2 N    94.6 W
SpaceCom   Jun  3 10:39     Jun  3 21:16 +-2h         9.4 S   104.0 E
SpaceCom   Jun  3 16:08     Jun  3 22:17 +-1h        49.6 S    51.2 W

SatEvo     May 30 13:30     Jun  3 15:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May 31 18:55     Jun  4 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Jun  1 19:10     Jun  4 00:24 +-18h
SatEvo     Jun  2 19:00     Jun  4 00:00 +-9h
SatEvo     Jun  3 18:20     Jun  3 22:22 +-1h        59.3 S    32.2 W

Latest elset (4.8 min early on yesterday's prediction, but with 
much-too-high perigee):
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  1125 x 142 km
1 20055U 89043D   99154.69072303  .99999999  00000-0  52318-1 0  9198
2 20055  63.4895 319.4729 0700877 253.3291  99.0086 14.78706728 56911

SatEvo prediction (perigee adjusted):
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  957 x 85 km
1 20055U 89043D   99154.75754637 2.23957183  23809+1  17929-2 0 99191
2 20055  63.4812 319.2498 0632044 253.3282  99.6424 15.15105213 56928
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  760 x 83 km
1 20055U 89043D   99154.82313662 2.92510705  52761+1  18965-2 0 99199
2 20055  63.4675 319.0211 0497355 253.3275 101.1557 15.48423827 56939
Molniya 3-35 r2                                  493 x 81 km
1 20055U 89043D   99154.88720376 4.90529761  20608+2  21837-2 0 99199
2 20055  63.4540 318.7848 0308807 253.3271 103.2608 15.95534239 56944

Note: I predict decay near perigee over the S Atlantic on the final 
orbit above.
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Object: #25728 = 99- 24 B = Orion 3 Delta 3 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Jun  1 22:01     Jun  5 22:06 +-3d         7.2 S   173.4 E
SpaceCom   Jun  2 17:20     Jun  5 16:10 +-2d        17.2 S    75.2 E
SpaceCom   Jun  3 17:42     Jun  5 17:43 +-10h       21.2 S    89.0 W

SatEvo     Jun  1 19:30     Jun  6 05:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Jun  2 19:15     Jun  5 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Jun  3 19:30     Jun  5 23:13 +-12h

Latest elset (2 sec early on yesterday's prediction, but drag much
too low):
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  526 x 143 km
1 25728U 99024B   99154.51518191  .00470054  00000-0  52922-4 0   879
2 25728  29.4556 222.6942 0285744 101.7412 261.6065 15.78596155  4394

SatEvo prediction:
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  486 x 141 km
1 25728U 99024B   99155.01961383  .07799030  73821-2  70224-3 0 90871
2 25728  29.4542 219.0067 0257957 107.6510 255.1821 15.86167438  4470
Ori 3 Delta 3 r                                  440 x 139 km
1 25728U 99024B   99155.52155116  .09185773  11506-1  66495-3 0 90877
2 25728  29.4525 215.2956 0226268 113.5986 248.7932 15.94641165  4553
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/