Decay watch: Irid 45 Delta and C 2351 Molnniya rockets

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 22 Jun 1998 22:51:49 +0100

The Iridium 45 Delta 2 rocket is our current decayer, to be followed by
the Molniya rocket responsible for Cosmos 2351.

The Delta is poorly placed for most most (all?) of us, with shadow entry
and exit at around 59 and 49 deg S latitude. The latest elset is:
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            203 x 175 km
1 25109U 97082F   98173.67415822  .03604437 -13586-5  68233-3 0  2956
2 25109  83.5594 183.1870 0021511   2.4040 357.7172 16.31314590 28781
I predict decay for June 23.9 (~21.30 UTC +-6h).
Predicted elsets:
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            192 x 169 km
1 25109U 97082F   98174.04185854  .05101462  16766-1  71434-3 0 92953
2 25109  83.5583 182.8153 0017984   0.8518 359.1513 16.34531730 28842
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            180 x 161 km
1 25109U 97082F   98174.34764864  .07438449  38827-1  70868-3 0 92952
2 25109  83.5570 182.5047 0014407 359.5546   0.4440 16.38268129 28892
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            155 x 144 km
1 25109U 97082F   98174.71338091  .17609361  23672+0  37954-3 0 92955
2 25109  83.5543 182.1301 0008308 357.9911   2.0055 16.46314733 28951
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            147 x 138 km
1 25109U 97082F   98174.77412341  .24010355  47004+0  34383-3 0 92957
2 25109  83.5535 182.0674 0006783 357.7293   2.2676 16.48797755 28963
Iridm 45 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            136 x 130 km
1 25109U 97082F   98174.83475544  .40790431  19591+1  33329-3 0 92956
2 25109  83.5519 182.0045 0004799 357.4669   2.5307 16.52525992 28978

The Molniya is a better prospect for observation with shadow entry at
about 53 deg N in the evening sky and exit at 59 deg S in the morning.
The latest elset from OIG (though not very recent) is:
C 2351 Moln r1   6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            259 x 188 km
1 25328U 98027B   98173.38245871  .01851390  84030-5  79409-3 0  1667
2 25328  62.8348 130.5237 0053363 118.7837 241.8717 16.18514448  7312
I show decay at about June 25.3 +-0.6day.
Prediction:
C 2351 Moln r1   6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            246 x 184 km
1 25328U 98027B   98174.06139770  .02521486  28823-2  88333-3 0 91664
2 25328  62.8338 127.7807 0046707 118.9106 241.5587 16.21640633  7421
C 2351 Moln r1   6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            235 x 181 km
1 25328U 98027B   98174.55429821  .03059049  45935-2  88779-3 0 91666
2 25328  62.8329 125.7809 0041206 119.0033 241.4101 16.24371029  7504
C 2351 Moln r1   6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            221 x 176 km
1 25328U 98027B   98175.04627439  .04000699  87744-2  89730-3 0 91666
2 25328  62.8318 123.7761 0034861 119.0964 241.2531 16.27794587  7583
C 2351 Moln r1   6.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            203 x 168 km
1 25328U 98027B   98175.53703665  .06060183  22485-1  90560-3 0 91665
2 25328  62.8302 121.7646 0027090 119.1900 241.0810 16.32574572  7666

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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