Re: Decay watch: Iridium 69 rocket

Mike McCants (mikem@freeside.fc.net)
Sat, 6 Jun 1998 13:16:36 -0500 (CDT)

Alan Pickup posted:

>SatEvo predicted elsets:
>
>Iridm 69 CZ r   10.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d            224 x 145 km
>1 25321U 98026C   98157.53294907  .06279723  20866-1  33385-3 0 91228
>2 25321  86.3276 276.1414 0059745  27.8968 332.4223 16.33002964  5549

OIG now has:

1 25321U 98026C   98157.53316514  .04656621 -12753-5  24964-3 0  1282
2 25321  86.3251 276.1454 0066110  28.0528 332.4329 16.31686366  5544

This is about 20 seconds later than Alan's predicted elset and has a
lower mean motion and lower drag.

OIG also has:

1 25321U 98026C   98157.65577308  .04978518 -12678-5  23286-3 0  1290
2 25321  86.3307 276.0712 0063185  26.8933 333.5695 16.33002655  5562

This continues the trend.  I believe a re-entry near 08:00UT over
Texas or the Midwest is now very likely.

Rob Matson wrote:

>The next rev takes the rocket body over Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
>eastern Nebraska, and the border of Minnesota with the Dakotas from about
>2:57am CDT to 3:03am CDT.

Here is the lat, long of the ground track:

**  98 Jun  7  Sun morning  **

  U  HGT HR MN  REVS   LAT  Long (West)
 20   80  7 58  12.0  20.8 -97.9
 24   80  7 59  12.0  25.0 -97.9
 29   81  8  0  12.0  29.1 -97.8
 33   82  8  1  12.0  33.3 -97.7
 37   84  8  2  12.0  37.4 -97.5
 41   85  8  3  12.0  41.5 -97.4
 45   87  8  4  12.1  45.7 -97.1
 49   88  8  5  12.1  49.8 -96.8

I'm at 30.30, -97.76, so it's going directly over me if it's
in the process of re-entering at 08:00UT.

Mike McCants
Austin, Tx