SatEvo decay list #55

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 6 Jun 1998 12:07:01 +0100

SatEvo decay list #55  (issued 1998 June 6)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included this time if I anticipate their decay by July 15, 
although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included 
beyond that date. In general, decay dates have slipped since last 
time.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay 
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including 
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued 
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
        ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 25177   87- 68 C   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb               May 15? Note 2
 24633   94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 20
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                          May 21.50
 24899   97- 41 E   C 2345 SL12 aux mot                 May 21.61
 24419   86- 17 LV  Mir deb                             May 22.0
 24747   97- 10 D   Zeya deb                            May 22.5
 15344   71-120 F   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb                May 28.7
 24098   94- 29 EV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 30
 25304   86- 17 MU  Mir deb                             May 30.8
 25329   98- 27 C   C 2351 Molniya plat                June  2.47
 25293   86- 17 MN  Mir deb                            June  3.4
 25348   98- 32 G   Iridium 70 deb                     June  3.5
 25087   97- 78 B   Galaxy 8I Centaur r                June  4.8
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb              June  5.0
 24746   97- 10 C   Zeya deb                           June  5.5
 25353   98- 27 F   C 2351 Molniya deb                 June  5.65
 19828   63- 14 EP  Westford Needles deb      June  6
 25321   98- 26 C   Iridium 69 CZ-2C r        June  7.3
 23920   86- 17 LG  Mir deb                   June  9
 25301   86- 17 MR  Mir deb                   June  9
 25303   86- 17 MT  Mir deb                   June 13
 24384   94- 29 QM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 16
 25351   98- 27 E   C 2351 Molniya deb        June 16
 24991   94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 17? Note 1
 23085   89- 89 CG  COBE deb                  June 18
 24552   94- 29 XC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 22
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        June 22
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         June 23
 25328   98- 27 B   C 2351 Molniya r          June 25
 23904   86- 17 KX  Mir deb                   June 27
 24583   94- 29 YK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 30
 24580   94- 29 YG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July  3
 22914   93- 73 D   Solidaridad Ariane deb    July  6
 23262   90- 81 CT  FY-1B CZ-4 deb            July 10
 25350   98-  8 F   Globalstar FM1 deb        July 14
 25278   64-  6 AF  Elektron 1 SL-3 deb       July 15
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July 24
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2         August
 21932   92- 19 C   Navstar 25 PAM-D r      August
 25322   98- 26 D   Iridium 69 CZ-2C S/D    August
 10794   78- 39 C   YURI Delta 1 r2      September
 14041   83- 38 E   Cosmos 1456 r        September
 18879   88- 12 C   CS 3A H-1 r2         September
 19730   88-115 A   Molniya 1-74         September
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r   September
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor             December

Note

1. No recent elsets.

2. #25177 I decayed this on April 29 in SatEvo decay list #53. Later 
elsets prove it survived a little longer.

3. #25347 (98- 32 F = Iridium 70 Delta r). On the basis of its first 
elsets, my previous list had this decaying in August. In fact, those
elsets greatly overstated the drag. I now suspect that this object will
survive until 2000 or 2001.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/