RE: KH 11-8, USA 86, 116

Ted Molczan (molczan@fox.nstn.ca)
Tue, 4 Jun 1996 22:53:10 -0400

Walter Nissen wrote:

>This table is drawn in significant part from Mike McCants' QSMG9604.ZIP =

>and Rainer Kracht's message, SeeSat-L #1220, both available from the=20
>SeeSat-L archive:=20
=20
>		      preferred=20
>		      vulgar=20
>		      name			 McCants   Eberst  std=20
>cat #  cospar	 USA  KH	 status 	 abs mag    Kracht  mag   ld=20
>15423  84-122 A    6  11-6	 out of orbit	 3.	   4.09 +/- .06  339=20
>18441  87- 90 A   27  11-7	 out of orbit??  ??	   4.20 +/- .16  299=20
>19625  88- 99 A   33  11-8	 in orbit	 3.	   3.98 +/- .07  311=20
>22251  92- 83 A   86  11-9	 ??		 ??	   5.05 +/- .10  333=20
>		      or 12-1??=20
>23728  95- 66 A  116  11-10,	 ??		 ??	   ??		 339=20
>		      12-1=20
>		      or 12-2??=20
>xxxxx??  ??	  ??		 ??		 ??	   ??=20
=20
>ld  is	January launch date=20
=20
>Is there a consensus supporting the erasure of any of these question=20
>marks?	I would be most appreciative.=20
=20
I do not know of any consensus, but here are some of my thoughts, and =
some recent news.

Regarding Kh names, I stopped assigning them with the launch of USA 53 =
(90019B / 20516),
which was deployed by a shuttle, and looked a lot like a kh-class =
object. Rainer determined a
standard magnitude almost identical to 92083A This could be a =
coincidence, but I suspect they
are the same type of object, and a new generation IMINT satellite. I =
suspect that 95066A is the
third of these birds. So, if we decide to give them names other than =
their USA numbers, I
believe we start the count with 90019B. I tend to agree that Kh probably =
is out of date
as far as the spooks are concerned, but I see no reason not use Kh 12, =
assuming there is a
consensus. Perhaps it is too soon for a consensus - I don't know - that =
is why I have not
raised the issue thus far.

Regarding 88099A, Russell Eberst mentioned to me on 21 May that it had =
gone missing. The most=20
recent elset I have has epoch 96133 =3D 12 May 96, so it appears that it =
disappeared sometime after
that date. Has anyone seen it lately? If not, it is reasonable to assume =
that it has been de-orbited.
This satellite operated in the standard early kh plane for a record 7.5 =
years.

If 88099A has been deorbited, then that may offer a clue to the unusual =
orbit of 95066A. Recall
that it's perigee height is about 130 km higher than usual for a =
Kh-class sat, and most importantly,
its groundtrack repeats every 2 days, instead of the usual 4 days. In =
the standard 2-Kh
constellation, the late satellite repeated the early satellite's =
groundtrack 2 days later. I suspect
that the present orbit of 95066A is designed to preserve 2 day =
groundtrack repetition, with a
single sat - perhaps until a replacement early sat is launched.

Also regarding 95066A, as of day 96142, it remained in a significantly =
non-sun-synchronous orbit -=20
drifting westward at about 0.05 deg/d. It has been drifting at about =
this rate since it was found in April.=20
The simplest explanation is that its operators are adjusting the plane. =
The "late" plane had drifted east=20
4 deg between 92135 and 95236, but on 96109 it was only 1.86 deg east, =
and on day 96142 it was=20
0.24 deg east. I have no idea when or where it will stop, but I do =
expect it stop eventually. It will be
interesting to see if the 2-day groundtrack repetition is retained.


>These are the only KH elsets in Ted Molczan's file last week:=20
>KH 9-17 ELINT	 0.3  0.9  0.0	9.0=20
>1 13172U 82041	C 96 80.04925749  .00000180  00000-0  30389-4 0    01=20
>2 13172  95.9712 280.0823 0004000  68.2280 291.7718 14.69528737    09=20
>KH 9-19 ELINT	 0.3  0.9  0.0	9.0=20
>1 15071U 84065	C 96 70.08899125  .00000160  00000-0  26244-4 0    03=20
>2 15071  95.9040  89.9195 0006000   5.8552 354.1446 14.70791019    01=20
>KH 11-8 	15.0  3.0  0.0	4.6=20
>1 19625U 88099	A 96133.14429013  .00007300  00000-0  82214-4 0    07=20
>2 19625  97.9340 195.7250 0534000 239.4325 120.5673 14.74800988    09=20

Here is another Kh-9 ELINT sub-satellite:

KH 9-16 ELINT    0.3  0.9  0.0  9.0
1 11852U 80052  C 89239.52528800  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
2 11852  96.6000  65.0000 0000000   0.0000   0.0000 12.82980000    01

I determined its elset from Doppler shift observations by a U.S.=20
satellite radio hobbyist. (I would like to credit him, but I do not=20
have his permission to do so, and I have lost track of him.) He =
monitored=20
its blank carrier signal on 432.882 MHz during Aug-Sep 1989. I tried to =
make visual obs, but could not see it with 11x80s, under favourable =
conditions.

Pierre Neirinck, working with Dutch radio observers, derived a similar
orbit, and announced the identification only hours before I did. We were =

not competing - neither team knew the other was working on the problem.
Small world!

80052C went silent soon after we identified it. There was speculation=20
that it had died years before, but had revived briefly, perhaps due to
warming by the sun. That was my first and only foray into Doppler
work, and I enjoyed it thoroughly.

bye for now