RE: Optical 13 July 2012 Part 1

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Jul 14 2012 - 13:00:35 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "Updated elements"

    Greg Roberts wrote:
    
    > BRIGHT UNKNOWN:
    > -------------------------------
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713165324695 55 15 1826239+031229 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713165417145 55 15 1827150+031302 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713165512367 55 15 1828091+031338 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713165716541 55 15 1830148+031552 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713165826555 55 15 1831247+031633 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713181446345 55 15 1948129+042429 19  +080 05
    > 99999 99 999A   0433 F 20120713181535683 55 15 1949018+042516 19  +080 05
    
    > (4) Bright unknown geostationary found very low on eastern horizon. Since
    >     it doesnt match anything reasonably confident its related to the
    >     NROL-15 launch. Unable to secure further observations due to cloud.
    
    Thank you, Greg! Those are our first observations of what must be the payload of NROL-15.
    
    To mitigate the short observational arc, I included a synthetic observation at the estimated time and place of first
    ascending node after launch, about 2012 Jun 29 18:55 UTC, near 97 E, which yields the following approximate result:
    
    1 70000U          12195.76083333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
    2 70000   3.5345 299.3633 0030000   0.0000 351.1626  1.00024366    03
    
    The corresponding drift is 0.895 deg/d west, but it could easily be off 0.1 deg/d, due to the several degrees
    uncertainty in the actual longitude of first ascending node. Typical drift rate magnitudes are close to 0.5 deg/d or 1.0
    deg/d. Since the latter is closest to the initial estimate, I substituted the corresponding mean motion, dropped the
    synthetic observation, and adjusted only the RAAN:
    
    1 70000U          12195.76083333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
    2 70000   3.5345 299.3791 0030000   0.0000 351.1442  0.99995000    03
    
    The RAAN is within ~0.4 deg of my NROL-15 pre-launch estimate. The object is about 2 magnitudes too bright to be the
    rocket body; therefore, it is the payload, named USA 237 (12034A / 38528). Its brightness is similar to that of the
    Mentor series of heavy SIGINT satellites. 
    
    Its brightness is also consistent with my highly speculative pre-launch guess of a GEO decoy to cover for a Misty that
    would have ended up in a LEO ~35 deg orbit, but that proves nothing. Unless the Misty is spotted and identified, or some
    convincing clue is found in the GEO object's orbital or optical behavior, the heavy SIGINT hypothesis will prevail.
    Until recently, an explanation that would support the heavy SIGINT hypothesis eluded me, but I believe I have made some
    progress. 
    
    NROL-15 seems mysterious due to the need to upgrade the Delta IV-Heavy's main engines to launch it, and the apparent ~11
    year delay in launching it, based on its NROL number. There is also the fact that that three Mentors were launched in
    the interim, one on a Titan IVB, two on Delta IV-Heavy with standard main engines. It made little sense for a heavier
    version to have been planned to precede them to orbit. But much of the mystery would vanish if the launch were not
    actually delayed by a decade. What if the NROL-15 designation had originally been assigned to a different payload that
    was cancelled, and later re-assigned to the present payload? Supporting evidence may be found in NROL-1, which almost
    certainly is an example of a re-assigned NROL designator. I hope to provide a more detailed outline in the near future.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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