Updated elements; KeyHole manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Jul 15 2009 - 18:10:55 UTC

  • Next message: Derek C Breit: "RE: Updated elements; KeyHole manoeuvre alert"

    Russell Eberst, Pierre Neirinck, Alberto Rango, Mike Waterman, Brad Young, and
    I, contributed observations used to determine the following element set.
    
    STSS-ATRR r                                              147 X 532 km
    1 34904U 09023B   09196.16581104  .00924293  00000-0  14947-3 0    05
    2 34904 112.5357  68.2294 0286896 236.0491 121.3066 15.76191524    01
    Arc 20090715.13-0715.19 WRMS resid 0.020 totl 0.016 xtrk
    
    I performed the analysis in two steps. I began the arc with Alberto's
    observations of Jul 13, near 22:00 UTC. Once the solution converged to a
    reasonable mean motion and rate of decay, I fixed those values, and shortened
    the arc to get a bit better fit to last night's data.
    
    Propagation using Satevo 0.51 results in decay on 2009 Aug 03.14 UTC.
    Uncertainty is at least several days.
    
    USA 129                                                  293 X 934 km
    1 24680U 96072A   09196.10062552  .00004004  00000-0  63651-4 0    06
    2 24680  97.8168 248.4750 0458658 350.3253   8.9345 14.84023021    02
    Arc 20090708.84-0715.11 WRMS resid 0.026 totl 0.013 xtrk
    
    USA 161                                                  309 X 957 km
    1 26934U 01044A   09195.98944493  .00000882  00000-0  18172-4 0    01
    2 26934  97.9256 306.9550 0461516 261.3859  93.4822 14.77911935    04
    Arc 200906280-07141 WRMS resid 0.028 totl 0.007 xtrk
    
    USA 186                                                 258 X 1004 km
    1 28888U 05042A   09196.08915444  .00008393  00000-0  78720-4 0    09
    2 28888  97.8831 258.5192 0532292  72.2145 293.6396 14.78424593    03
    Arc 20090702.84-0715.1 WRMS resid 0.028 totl 0.011 xtrk
    
    USA 186 remains likely to raise its apogee this week or next. I am revising my
    alert for USA 129; originally I stated it would raise its perigee one week after
    USA 186 manoeuvres, but it could as easily happen one week prior to USA 186's
    manoeuvre, or even on the same day. So both could manoeuvre this week.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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