RE: Possible observation of 31702,2007-027B

From: Ted Molczan (sslmolcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Jul 19 2007 - 21:50:18 EDT

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    Mike McCants pointed out that the payloads also passed close Bram's reference
    star (after accounting for Earth's rotation). I intended to test for this, but
    made an error, for which I apologize.
    
    Bram does not recall seeing any variation in brightness, as has been typical of
    previous NOSS Centaurs, but points out that he was observing in twilight, and
    concentrating on spotting suitable reference stars.
    
    The C object would have to have manoeuvred lower to account for Bram's
    observation, which is unlikely given the circumstances. The A object would have
    to have manoeuvred higher, as would be expected.
    
    The following estimated elements are based on the assumption of a boost in
    apogee at the first perigee passage following my observation of July 17:
    
    NOSS 3-4 (A)     0.0  0.0  0.0  4.9 v
    1 70001U          07198.36655093  .00000020  00000-0  20000-4 0    01
    2 70001  63.4314 321.8473 0243300 149.2098 357.5000 13.64602408    08 
    
    Of course, the manoeuvre could well have been made at a later perigee passage,
    which would have required a lower mean motion to account for Bram's observation
    of July 19. Therefore, the above predicts the earliest possible passes -
    assuming a manoeuvre was made.
    
    That Bram may have observed the Centaur remains a possibility, so this orbit
    should be also be considered when planning observations:
    
    NOSS 3-4 r       0.0  0.0  0.0  5.0 v
    1 70000U          07200.09580003  .00000023  00000-0  20000-4 0    05
    2 70000  63.9673 317.6366 0286546 143.3187 218.7854 13.68536780    05
    
    along with the last known orbits of A and C:
    
    1 31701U 07027A   07198.33702639  .00000020  00000-0  20000-4 0    07
    2 31701  63.4314 321.9258 0238987 149.2099 212.3211 13.65513069    07
    
    1 31708U 07027C   07198.33893478  .00000020  00000-0  20000-4 0    06
    2 31708  63.4187 321.8999 0233687 149.5273 211.9586 13.65060156    06
    
    I have a couple of pre-dawn passes, but weather remains difficult.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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