Re: unid - new orbits

From: Björn Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Date: Sun Jul 31 2005 - 16:21:44 EDT

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    Good work, Ed!
    Your obs (without the last one on 0716 and 0730, all taken six times,
    with 0702 just once, improve the ones for 37 and 38 orbits/14 days.
    The adjoining 36 and 39 orbit elsets get worse.
    All get a reasonable ndot2 drag, but again 37 and 38 give the most
    reasonable B* term. Along with your intrinsic magnitude, and the
    inclination, I suspect a Centaur rocket.
    
    Ed050730 36 RMS=0.33 MM=2.57969620               31248 x 910 km
    1 31697U 05697A   05211.07454544  .00000320  00000-0  18416-1 0    15
    2 31697  27.5812 186.6520 6754611 139.1769 298.6535  2.57969620   371
    Ed050730 37 RMS=0.22 MM=2.65133865               30772 x 574 km
    1 31697U 05697A   05211.06255680  .00000324  00000-0  29078-2 0    15
    2 31697  27.5419 185.4013 6847259 147.3464 284.7073  2.65133865   389
    Ed050730 38 RMS=0.21 MM=2.72299208               30003 x 566 km
    1 31697U 05697A   05211.06191175  .00000343  00000-0  27748-2 0    16
    2 31697  27.5318 184.8832 6794568 148.1698 281.9730  2.72299208   393
    Ed050730 39 RMS=0.26 MM=2.79465278               29070 x 755 km
    1 31697U 05697A   05211.06860372  .00000367  00000-0  89811-2 0    13
    2 31697  27.5395 184.8991 6649688 144.5475 287.0247  2.79465278   400
    
    I'd love to see it, but we've had over a week of rain and overcast, and my
    opportunities about a week from now are around 15 deg SW at 6500 km range
    
    /Björn
    
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: "Ed Cannon"
    
    > It appears that I did see this unknown again.
    >
    > The two closest of Björn's element sets, in that they gave
    > the closest predictions to what I saw, appear to be these:
    >
    > Ed050716 37 RMS=0.23 orbits MM=2.65121599
    > 1 31697U 05697A   05197.07504393  .00000083  00000-0  93947-3 0    05
    > 2 31697  27.5663 191.4049 6832232 137.0266 254.1707  2.65121599    02
    > Ed050716 38 RMS=0.23 orbits MM=2.72286372
    > 1 31697U 05697A   05197.07504393  .00000089  00000-0  93947-3 0    01
    > 2 31697  27.5451 191.0341 6776665 137.5396 251.2686  2.72286372    07
    >
    > Those are from http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jul-2005/0197.html
    >
    > Based on the predictions that I got from those, and its
    > observed magnitude of about +5.5 in Sagitta and Delphinus,
    > its Quicksat intrinsic magnitude is about +3.0.  I was
    > pretty sure that I saw it do two or three little flashes.
    
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