Re: Flare & ISS

From: Edward S Light (edlight@juno.com)
Date: Sat Jul 27 2002 - 15:35:15 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Report 25 /26 July"

    On Fri, 26 Jul 2002 22:07:29 CDT Linda <jramsey@muhlon.com> wrote:
    > Listmates,
    > I've been observing sats, flares, and the ISS.  Hopefully, the
    following
    > descriptions are more accurate and helpful.
    > 
    > According to H-A, there were no Iridium Flares at my locartion
    scheduled
    > for p.m. tonight -- only for tomorrow a.m.  However, I saw a nice flare
    > near Lyra.  The descriptive data follows:
    > 
    > Unknown Flare        20:57:43 CDT  (-5 GMT)
    >                                alt. 58 degrees        az. 93 degrees
    >                                Mag. -2.5  (3x Vega in Lyra)
    > 
    ... some stuff deleted ...
    > 
    > It was a nice night for viewing.
    > Linda R.    37.20,      -87.17:.
    
    As Tony Beresford noted earlier, there are no obvious matches. Running
    [Rob Matson's] Skymap using all the elements at my disposal, the closest
    objects to the reported altaz, assuming the reported time is exact, were:
    
    26973 (01-050D), a Molniya rocket at altaz 57.1/091.2 moving very slowly
    	to the lower right. This was almost 15,800 miles away and is most
    	unlikely to produce negative magnitude flashes.
    
    02877 (67-065C), a Thor Burner rocket at altaz 51.8/106.6 moving to the
    	upper left. This was some 2,740 miles away and besides being
    	several degrees from the reported flare position, is also unlikely
    	to produce such bright flares [corrections by experienced observers
    	are most welcome and desired here!]
    
    25904 (94-016D), a piece of debris from the GPS 2-24 launch. This was at
    	altaz 58.04/104.2, moving to the lower left. At a range of 5,281
    	miles, it too is probably incapable of such bright flares.
    	[The term "debris" usually, but not always, implies a small,
    	faint object.] Note that for this object, the fact that the
    	orbital elements are almost two weeks old implies an uncertainty
    	of any predictions of its position by several minutes of time.
    
    So, alas, I have to concur with Tony that there seem to be no good
    candidates for your flares among those satellites whose orbital elements
    are unclassified. 
    
    General comment: it would help narrow down such searches if you could
    indicate the approximate uncertainty in the reported positions and
    times, as well as the apparent direction of travel.
    
    Clear and dark skies!
       Ed Light
    
    Lakewood, NJ, USA
    N 40.1075, W 074.2312
    
    
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