Decay watch: 2002 July 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jul 02 2002 - 16:39:56 EDT

  • Next message: Jari: "Obs"

    After a few days away, I have updated my Decay Watch page with the final 
    notices for the following five objects. Check the page for more details.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26642 = 00- 81 E = Astra 2D Ariane 5 deb (Sylda)
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jun 29 16:20     Jun 29 16:03 +-7m         2.4 S   113.4 E
    SatEvo     Jul  1 21:35     Jun 29 16:21 +-1h         0.4 S   170.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    Astra 2D Ariane 5 deb (Sylda)                    451 x 126 km
    1 26642U 00081E   02180.48413814  .79799861 -34458-4  27942-2 0  8342
    2 26642   2.1359 344.3035 0243763 343.8211 298.4817 15.94832003 23853
    
    Note: I put the decay near a northbound crossing of the equator over
    the Pacific to the N of New Zealand. My predicted elset for the start
    of that rev is:
    Astra 2D Ariane 5 deb (Sylda)                    308 x 124 km
    1 26642U 00081E   02180.62163613 1.50486368  50671+1  34284-2 0 98348
    2 26642   2.1356 343.1098 0139025 346.2060  13.4179 16.21285018 23877
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26885 = 01- 34 B = Genesis Delta 2 rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jul  1 21:51     Jul  1 00:03 +-1m        15.2 S   132.7 E
    SatEvo     Jul  1 22:00     Jun 30 23:52 +-1h         2.5 S   107.0 E
    
    Final elset:
    Genesis Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   16       211 x 127 km
    1 26885U 01034B   02181.84446759  .23570141 -10841-4  39274-3 0  6915
    2 26885  26.7896 200.0590 0063849 139.3860 235.4832 16.38910612 42241
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound near the equator close to
    Singapore, Malaysia. My prediction for the start of the final rev
    runs:
    Genesis Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   16       162 x 116 km
    1 26885U 01034B   02181.96338525  .80112119  60987+1  51650-3 0 96911
    2 26885  26.7878 199.0862 0035526 141.0122 219.2444 16.50144375 42262
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27381 = 02-  7 B = Intelsat 904 Ariane 44L rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jul  1 11:17     Jul  1 08:44 +-7m         4.0 N     9.0 E
    SatEvo     Jul  2 20:00     Ju1  1 08:27 +-1h         6.8 N    56.0 W
    
    Final elset:
    Intelsat 904 Ariane 44L r                        782 x 108 km
    1 27381U 02007B   02182.12605747  .99999999 -29992-4  34266-2 0  2562
    2 27381   6.9913 278.0166 0493894 134.1377  83.7289 15.40557736  6044
    
    Note: I have this decaying near the N coast of South America, to the
    E of Venezuela on the orbit following this SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Intelsat 904 Ariane 44L r                        411 x 107 km
    1 27381U 02007B   02182.27889420 4.07737661  20567+2  47839-2 0 92563
    2 27381   6.9890 276.7717 0229350 136.5997 225.2288 16.05596492  6061
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27425 = 02- 22 B = Aqua Delta 2 rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jul  2 10:32     Jul  2 08:56 +-7m        79.0 N    30.0 E
    SatEvo     Jul  2 20:20     Jul  2 08:48 +-20m       47.5 N    63.0 E
    
    Final elset:
    Aqua Del2 r      7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       148 x 121 km
    1 27425U 02022B   02183.29826622  .36203422  27719-5  26538-3 0  1630
    2 27425  97.3204 123.1147 0021282  47.4151 312.9022 16.51867959  9233
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed northbound over Kazakhstan on
    the orbit following the one given by the above elset.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27455 = 02- 33 B = Progress M-46 Soyuz rocket
    
    Final analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Jun 28 03:09     Jun 28 02:22 +-7m        38.9 S    94.4 W
    SatEvo     Jul  1 21:45     Jun 28 02:10 +-1h         0.0     130.7 W
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M-46 Soyuz r                            158 x 150 km
    1 27455U 02033B   02178.87815112  .10404317  12481-4  33230-3 0   133
    2 27455  51.6034 358.9794 0006608 112.2581 247.9168 16.44472606   275
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed near a southbound equator crossing
    over the eastern Pacific on the orbit following this SatEvo-predicted
    rev:
    Progress M-46 Soyuz r                            138 x 133 km
    1 27455U 02033B   02178.99943323  .50484636  37730+1  44413-3 0 90132
    2 27455  51.6016 358.2859 0004095 112.7766 247.2666 16.51489447   295
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jul 02 2002 - 16:53:07 EDT