Mike McCants has reported that USA 129 had not manoeuvred as of 2001 Jul 02 at 04:08 UTC. Here are his most recent elsets for both KeyHoles: USA 116 15.0 3.0 0.0 5.1 v 1 24680U 96072A 01183.16443562 .00029800 00000-0 38205-3 0 01 2 24680 97.8272 245.0275 0482000 180.8523 179.1476 14.83428139 01 USA 116 15.0 3.0 0.0 5.1 v 1 23728U 95066A 01176.02830438 .00021000 00000-0 44132-3 0 04 2 23728 97.9050 288.2033 0428000 57.2346 302.7652 14.84289503 00 USA 129 currently is especially well placed for evening observation over a wide range of mid-Northern latitudes. I believe that both KeyHoles are likely to manoeuvre to re-boost their apogee sometime in the next 24 h. The manoeuvres would occur when the objects are near perigee, resulting in an increase of orbital period of about 0.7 min, and an increase in apogee of about 60 km. I have appended search elements for 96072A, for its first 16 perigee passages following Mike McCants' aforementioned obs. Their pseudo-NORAD numbers range between 79001 and 79016. Following are directions for using the data for Western European and North American observers. I have chosen those areas because they normally account for the vast majority of observations of these objects. Observations are welcome from anywhere in the World, and the following advice can be readily adapted to any location. Western Europe Assuming that there have been no additional observations as of 2001 Jul 02 at 22:00 UTC, then Western European observers should consider elsets 79001 through 79011 in planning their obs, as well as the above latest non-maneouvre elset. First, plot the expected path of the above non-manoeuvre elset. Then plot the path of elsets 79001 and 79011 to show the earliest and latest possible post-manoeuvre tracks. If those tracks are farther apart than your field of view, then plot one or more of the intermediate elsets, such that pairs of successive tracks are within the field of view. When observing, first wait for the object to appear in the non-manoeuvre orbit. If it does not arrive at the predicted time, then it has likely manoeuvred, in which case, you should shift to the 79001 track, and wait for it to arrive. If it fails to arrive at the time predicted for 79001, then switch to your next plotted track. If you plotted only every other track, then you should keep in mind that the object may arrive on one of the in-between tracks that were not plotted. The object should eventually arrive on or near one of the tracks. Please report your obs to SeeSat-L. It need not be very detailed. For example, "96072A failed to appear on the non-manoeuvre orbit, but an object was seen moving in about the orbit 79004 path, within about 1 minute of the predicted time of the 79004 path." North America If Western European or other observers report having seen 96072A in one of the post maneouvre search orbits, 79001 through 79011, then North American observers need only wait for the object in the reported search orbit. As a hedge against possible erroneous reports of a manoeuvre, it would be wise to first wait for the object in the non-maneouvre orbit. If it does not appear, then switch to the reported post-manoeuvre orbit. If the Western European observers are clouded out, or if they fail to report the results of their observations, then North American observers will need to consider elsets 79001 through at least 79014, in addition to the non-manoeuvre elset. The directions for use otherwise are the same as those I provided for the Western European observers. If the Western European observers report that the object had not yet manoeuvred, then North American observers need consider only elset 79012 through 79014. Eastern North American observers should report their results as quickly as possible, so that those further west may benefit. If the manoeuvres do not occur in the next 24 h, then the next most likely date is 2001 Jul 12, when USA 116's perigee crosses the equator. My schedule is uncertain, but right now, it is doubtful that I will be available to participate prior to about 2001 Jun 03 at 03:00 UTC. Ted Molczan 1 79001U 01183.19828704 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 07 2 79001 97.8272 245.0608 0522000 180.7413 0.0000 14.74000000 08 1 79002U 01183.26570602 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 07 2 79002 97.8272 245.1272 0522000 180.5201 0.0000 14.74000000 00 1 79003U 01183.33312500 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 07 2 79003 97.8272 245.1936 0522000 180.2988 0.0000 14.74000000 07 1 79004U 01183.40053241 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 00 2 79004 97.8272 245.2599 0522000 180.0776 0.0000 14.74000000 07 1 79005U 01183.46795139 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 06 2 79005 97.8272 245.3263 0522000 179.8564 0.0000 14.74000000 08 1 79006U 01183.53534722 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 04 2 79006 97.8272 245.3926 0522000 179.6352 0.0000 14.74000000 08 1 79007U 01183.60276620 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 03 2 79007 97.8272 245.4590 0522000 179.4140 0.0000 14.74000000 00 1 79008U 01183.67017361 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 06 2 79008 97.8272 245.5254 0522000 179.1928 0.0000 14.74000000 00 1 79009U 01183.73759259 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 03 2 79009 97.8272 245.5917 0522000 178.9716 0.0000 14.74000000 09 1 79010U 01183.80500000 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 01 2 79010 97.8272 245.6581 0522000 178.7504 0.0000 14.74000000 02 1 79011U 01183.87239583 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 04 2 79011 97.8272 245.7245 0522000 178.5292 0.0000 14.74000000 03 1 79012U 01183.93981481 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 03 2 79012 97.8272 245.7908 0522000 178.3080 0.0000 14.74000000 03 1 79013U 01184.00722222 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 09 2 79013 97.8272 245.8572 0522000 178.0868 0.0000 14.74000000 03 1 79014U 01184.07464120 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 07 2 79014 97.8272 245.9236 0522000 177.8656 0.0000 14.74000000 04 1 79015U 01184.14204861 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 00 2 79015 97.8272 245.9899 0522000 177.6444 0.0000 14.74000000 03 1 79016U 01184.20946759 .00025000 00000-0 33702-3 0 07 2 79016 97.8272 246.0563 0522000 177.4232 0.0000 14.74000000 07 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Jul 02 2001 - 01:11:59 PDT