Decay watch: 2000 Jul 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jul 17 2000 - 00:17:17 PDT

  • Next message: Tony Beresford: "Zvezda-ISS"

    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more on the
    following decayers. Again, current elsets are collected at the end.
    
    #9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 18 04:00 +-15h        4/0 S    60.9 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 02:37 +-7h        18.9 S   120.9 E
    
    I show this decaying southbound as it begins to track SE over Western
    Australia on this predicted orbit:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               164 x 123 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00200.07013377  .72868188  36992+1  64723-3 0 95358
    2 09530  24.2910 227.6797 0031229 205.8779 153.9656 16.48527773 42407
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #20698 = 90- 61 F = Cosmos 2085 aux motor
    
    Final decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 16 09:20 +-3h        46.6 N   130.4 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 16 08:09 +-90m        7.0 N   130.7 W
    
    I put re-entry on a southbound pass over the E Pacific on the following
    orbit:
    C 2085 aux motor                                 273 x 102 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00198.31106795 1.46007559  53255+1  10401-2 0 95328
    2 20698  46.5315 112.9209 0130179 118.3211 242.9981 16.31965498128146
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26357 = 00- 24 B = USA 149 Titan 4 r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 23 19:28 +-5d         1.7 N   171.0 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 26 20:51 +-3d
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 17 16:09 +-9h        34.2 S   134.0 E
       SatEvo:   Jul 17 18:10 +-5h        48.1 B   106.7 W
    
    There are several orbits of uncertainty, but my current estimate shows
    this decaying over Montana on a path that would carry it SE-wards to N
    Carolina at 18:16. The predicted elset for this rev is:
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                116 x 104 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00199.73882550  .78373741  74631+1  17997-3 0 90313
    2 26401  51.5977 343.3006 0008996 108.0978 252.0002 16.61275972   909
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Latest elsets:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               297 x 164 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00199.08911219  .06569749 -13821-4  15684-2 0  5359
    2 09530  24.2960 235.6804 0100135 192.0364 167.7764 16.16042969 42249
    USA 149 Titan 4 r                                378 x 176 km
    1 26357U 00024B   00199.07658378  .01082285 -68911-5  50773-3 0  1086
    2 26357  28.6207 153.1141 0152344 163.9896 196.5563 15.99111966 10865
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                200 x 149 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00199.00998688  .05926116  12248-4  32600-3 0   312
    2 26401  51.6039 347.4537 0039056 104.9921 255.5573 16.36869458   784
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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