The extremely strong geomagnetic storm may be abating a little but
expect drag values to remain high, with objects running early against
predictions based on pre-storm elsets.
My Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
has detailed predictions for the following (now) four objects. I have
collected the latest elsets for each at the end of this posting.
_____________________________________________________________________
#9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: Jul 17 11:56 +-20h 18.4 S 13.3 W
SatEvo: Jul 17 14:46 +-10h 16.8 S 64.3 W
_____________________________________________________________________
#20698 = 90- 61 F = Cosmos 2085 aux motor
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: Jul 16 09:06 +-4h 21.7 N 64.5 E
SatEvo: Jul 16 08:09 +-90m 7.0 N 130.7 W
My decay prediction now puts re-entry on a southbound pass over the E
Pacific. The predicted final elset:
C 2085 aux motor 273 x 102 km
1 20698U 90061F 00198.31106795 1.46007559 53255+1 10401-2 0 95328
2 20698 46.5315 112.9209 0130179 118.3211 242.9981 16.31965498128146
_____________________________________________________________________
#26357 = 00- 24 B = USA 149 Titan 4 r
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: Jul 23 19:28 +-5d 1.7 N 171.0 W
SatEvo: Jul 25 04:18 +-3d
This has eclipse shadow entry near northern apex (28.6 N) at ~20:00
local time. It leaves eclipse while southbound near 18 deg S at ~05:30
local time.
_____________________________________________________________________
#26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
Current predictions:
SpaceCom: Jul 17 17:52 +-1d 8.1 N 146.7 E
SatEvo: Jul 18 00:13 +-15h
_____________________________________________________________________
Latest elsets for all four objects:
Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2 349 x 171 km
1 09530U 74094E 00198.22192598 .06821704 -13483-4 24919-2 0 5295
2 09530 24.3056 242.6188 0133878 179.5586 180.4796 16.05355814 42101
C 2085 aux motor 402 x 108 km
1 20698U 90061F 00198.18780206 .48338507 89240-5 59719-3 0 5324
2 20698 46.5377 113.6703 0222184 117.5770 244.8351 16.07086150128122
USA 149 Titan 4 r 389 x 177 km
1 26357U 00024B 00198.14004601 .01744798 -68342-5 89186-3 0 1034
2 26357 28.6200 160.1854 0158652 152.3450 208.5699 15.96942576 10717
Zvezda Proton-K r 247 x 163 km
1 26401U 00037B 00197.93084068 .03924994 12021-4 71856-3 0 269
2 26401 51.6051 353.4801 0063754 98.3269 41.8974 16.25416673 609
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Jul 16 2000 - 01:42:56 PDT