Decay watch: 2000 Jul 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jul 15 2000 - 10:22:29 PDT

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    Very stormy geomagnetic conditions prevail, and these could intensify
    further following yesterdays solar flare (the strongest of this solar
    cycle) and CME. This makes decay-predicting even more uncertain than
    usual.
    
    More details of the following decayers, including predicted elsets, are
    on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    #9530 = 74- 94 E = Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 18 04:47 +-2d         3.8 N   131.7 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 07:06 +-21h
    
    Latest elset:
    Skynet 2B Dlt 1 r2                               385 x 178 km
    1 09530U 74094E   00197.47419623  .04030793 -13100-4  20613-2 0  5259
    2 09530  24.3028 248.5050 0155968 168.9317 191.4679 15.97464743 41980
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #20698 = 90- 61 F = Cosmos 2085 aux motor
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 16 06:43 +-15h        4.8 S    96.6 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 16 12:32 +-11h       25.0 N   142.9 E
    
    Latest elset (already 10+hours old):
    C 2085 aux motor                                 791 x 113 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00197.25674769  .18818034  88872-5  46218-3 0  5221
    2 20698  46.5476 118.9114 0496768 113.4296  33.6946 15.38006480127972
    
    The latest elset has this 116 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction. My decay prediction puts re-entry over the E Pacific, to 
    the SE of Japan, on the following predicted orbit:
    C 2085 aux motor                                 216 x 96 km
    1 20698U 90061F   00198.49808677 1.83555197  10361+2  83539-3 0 95226
    2 20698  46.5183 111.7928 0091452 120.4977 240.4084 16.43814217128172
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26401 = 00- 37 B = Zvezda Proton-K r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul 17 23:23 +-2d        39.2 N   176.9 W
       SatEvo:   Jul 18 07:29 +-19h
    
    Latest elset:
    Zvezda Proton-K r                                257 x 166 km
    1 26401U 00037B   00197.59939862  .02704634  11974-4  58398-3 0   226
    2 26401  51.6063 355.3167 0068829  97.3034 263.5815 16.23052962   551
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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