SatEvo decay list #102

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jul 08 2000 - 12:43:48 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #102  (issued 2000 July 8)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 August 31, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     24982   94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June 24.7
      8092   72- 58 DT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb              June 24.8
     26380   00- 31 C   Express 3a Proton platform         June 25.02
     17206   86- 19 BJ  SPOT 1 r deb                       June 25.2
     24175   94- 29 JA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 June 25.6
     26379   00- 31 B   Express 3A Proton r                June 26.21
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077                        June 26.66
     26254   99- 57 EQ  CBERS LM4 deb                      June 28
     14555   81- 53 JN  Cosmos 1275 deb                    July  1.3
      1721   65- 82 CC  OV2-1/LCS2 deb                     July  1.5
     26392   00- 35 C   Sirius 1 Proton platform           July  1
     24262   94- 29 MM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July  1.6
     26391   00- 35 B   Sirius 1 Proton r                  July  1.64 Note 2
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor                July  2.22 Note 3
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r                     July  4.13
     26396   00- 36 C   Cosmos 2371 Proton platform        July  5.87
     17256   81- 58 E   Cosmos 1278 deb                    July  6.52 Note 1
     26395   00- 36 B   Cosmos 2371 Proton r               July  7.54
     22402   92- 93 CT  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     July  9
     23209   94- 50 G   Cosmos 2287 aux motor     July 10
     24216   94- 29 KP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 10
     24085   94- 29 EG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        July 12
      7874   72- 58 AW  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb     July 14
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor     July 15
     22542   92- 93 HC  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     July 15
      2363   63- 14 N   Westford Needles          July 19
      9530   74- 94 E   Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2      July 19
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)       July 26
     19390   87- 20 BW  Cosmos 1823 deb           July 27
     26357   00- 24 B   USA 149 Titan 4 r         July 29
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird                July 31
     18208   86- 19 RF  SPOT 1 r deb            August  1
     23050   94- 21 H   Cosmos 2275 aux motor   August  2
     15786   64-  6 G   Elektron 1 deb          August  3
     25739   99- 26 E   Terriers adapter cone   August  6
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2     August  9
     20869   90- 81 AH  FY-1B CZ deb            August 13
     21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 32 aux motor   August 13
     24043   94- 29 CQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 13
     26364   86- 17 NP  Mir deb                 August 15
     24348   94- 29 NZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 17
     24189   94- 29 JQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 22
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux motor   August 24
     23291   85-118 N   Cosmos 1710 Proton deb  August 24
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2         August 25
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1     August 26
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955           September 20
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September 20
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor  September 28
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r   October  2
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                 October  3
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux motor  October  7
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Pegasus stg3  October  8
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October 11
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r            October 12
     23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux motor  October 16
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October 23
     12547   81- 58 A   Cosmos 1278           November
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                November
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS II r              November
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1           November
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1             November
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   December
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  December
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79       2001 February
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85          2001 March
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. The re-entry of #26391, the Sirius 1 Proton rocket, was observed
    to the south of Perth, Western Australia.
    
    3. There were many observations of the re-entry of #21025, the
    Raduga 26 auxilliary motor, as it re-entered over California, to
    the south of San Francisco.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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