Decay watch: 2000 Jul 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Jul 04 2000 - 12:45:23 PDT

  • Next message: Eberst: "JUL3-4.OBS"

    #17256 = 81- 58 E = Cosmos 1278 deb
    
    According to SpaceCom, this debris object has a Radar Cross Section of
    2.5 m^2, which presumably is why decay warnings have started to appear.
    It enters eclipse while southbound near 35 deg N at ~02:00 local time
    and leaves eclipse still southbound near 47 deg S at ~06:00 local time.
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul  7 03:34 +-2d        18.0 N   174.2 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  7 00:52 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1278 deb E                                3772 x 108 km
    1 17256U 81058E   00186.53869992  .43749232 -22221-5  23869-2 0  8199
    2 17256  62.7908 160.4991 2201946 196.3857 155.5562 11.44404680100831
            ____________________________________________________
    
    #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    This is down at last...final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Jul  4 03:35 +-32m        4.5 N    18.5 E
       SatEvo:   Jul  4 03:14 -15m+90m    57.4 S    29.4 W
    
    The final elset...
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   296 x 75 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00186.11250000  .99999999  75412-5  28885-3 0   611
    2 20339  63.6877 351.8803 0167894 256.1409 262.7585 16.32636198 77358
    ...has this 57 sec late against my last 
    prediction. I put decay a little beyond perigee on this orbit, over
    the South Sandwich Islands in the South Atlantic. It is possible 
    that it survived to re-enter near perigee on the following orbit at
    about 04:33 UTC near 60.5 S, 118.8 W, over the SE Pacific.
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jul 06 2000 - 03:14:54 PDT