Decay watch: 2000 Jul 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jul 05 2000 - 14:55:24 PDT

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    #17256 = 81- 58 E = Cosmos 1278 deb
    
    Current decay estimates have shifted earlier:
       SpaceCom: Jul  6 12:30 +-12h       37.6 S   111.9 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  6 10:53 +-8h        40.5 S    86.3 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1278 deb E                                2297 x 104 km
    1 17256U 81058E   00187.77373485  .96036657 -13841-4  31573-2 0  8289
    2 17256  62.7355 157.7375 1446698 197.3326 157.1636 13.15886679100986
    
    Well done to Daniel Deak for spotting this difficult object, There are
    predicted elset for each orbit on my Decay watch page at
                  http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              ________________________________________________
    
    #26395 = 00- 36 B = Cosmos 2371 Proton r
    
    Decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Jul  7 22:22 +-2d        40.9 N   148.1 E
       SatEvo:   Jul  7 12:19 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             188 x 181 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00187.71619256  .02619600  12214-4  41000-3 0    73
    2 26395  51.6144 284.7189 0005717 296.3831  63.6600 16.33090181   125
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             183 x 176 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00188.02197845  .02882210  48738-2  37953-3 0 90071
    2 26395  51.6139 283.0046 0005349 297.6639  62.2817 16.34718403   179
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             179 x 173 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00188.26638516  .03300976  67023-2  36948-3 0 90078
    2 26395  51.6135 281.6314 0005024 298.6900  61.2595 16.36224238   216
    Cosmos 2371 Proton r                             174 x 168 km
    1 26395U 00036B   00188.51054991  .03891806  97998-2  35779-3 0 90077
    2 26395  51.6130 280.2563 0004663 299.7175  60.2360 16.37971203   251
    
    This enters eclipse near southern apex at ~18:00 local time. It leaves
    eclipse while northbound near 43 deg N at 03:00 local time, so it should
    be a bright, fast morning object over pasts of the USA.
              ________________________________________________
    
    #26396 = 00- 36 C = Cosmos 2371 Proton platform
    
    This has probably decayed already, but SpaceCom has yet to post its
    final analysis. Current decay estimates are:
       SpaceCom: Jul  5 20:48 +-2h        12.7 N   141.4 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  5 19:09 +-4h        34.3 N   139.6 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton platform                      160 x 159 km
    1 26396U 00036C   00187.65411375  .16351569  12480-4  87649-3 0   109
    2 26396  51.6014 285.0682 0001119  26.3505 333.7617 16.42412425   112
    
    My predicted elset for the final rev:
    Cosmos 2371 Proton platform                      124 x 123 km
    1 26396U 00036C   00187.77540594 2.03681099  50000+2  92754-3 0 90109
    2 26396  51.5981 284.3747 0000860  26.8692 333.1353 16.55952039   139
    
    I put decay on a southbound pass over the E Pacific to the W of Los
    Angeles.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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