Decay watch: 2000 Jul 3

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Jul 03 2000 - 14:50:03 PDT

  • Next message: JAY RESPLER: "Re: Decay watch: 2000 Jul 3"

    #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    SpaceCom has rejoined the game; current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  4 01:43 +-4h        59.5 S    12.5 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  4 03:09 +-4h        63.5 S    58.3 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   673 x 87 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00185.66953113  .49367827  46339-5  37086-3 0   562
    2 20339  63.7237 353.5653 0433373 248.4696 253.9840 15.62594584 77283
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   513 x 84 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00185.89751893  .73389420  49011+0  39322-3 0 90566
    2 20339  63.7124 352.7245 0321042 248.4509 108.0972 15.91424137 77327
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   458 x 83 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00185.96024091  .84597787  71988+0  41064-3 0 90560
    2 20339  63.7093 352.4866 0281908 248.4458 108.5265 16.01285843 77339
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   395 x 83 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00186.02255952 1.02451146  12068+1  43559-3 0 90565
    2 20339  63.7059 352.2466 0236252 248.4406 109.0253 16.12842190 77340
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   317 x 82 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00186.08440352 1.37696465  31650+1  47762-3 0 90562
    2 20339  63.6999 352.0040 0179106 248.4355 109.6463 16.27392376 77357
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   198 x 80 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00186.14563501 2.89092066  31118+2  61027-3 0 90566
    2 20339  63.6931 351.7577 0090624 248.4305 110.6013 16.50246896 77361
    
    I put decay a little beyond perigee on the penultimate of these orbits,
    to the S of South America. Note that if the decay occurs on the previous
    orbit, as SpaceCom expects, then the re-entry might be observed over S
    Africa on a track from Mosselbaai at 01:51 UTC to Johannesburg at 01:54.
           __________________________________________________
    
    #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    As Harro Zimmer has reported, there are several reports from California
    which indicate that this object was observed as a slow-moving
    fragmenting fireball as it re-entered near the beginning of its pass
    across the USA at Jul 2 05:20 UTC. This is about midway between the
    estimates made by SpaceCom and myself, and well within the
    uncertainties.
           __________________________________________________
    
    #26391 = 00- 35 B = Sirius 1 Proton r
    
    I have two reports from Western Australia of what appear to be the re-
    entry of this rocket on July 1 on a track heading roughly NNE over
    Collie, to the south of Perth. The time is given as 15:25-15:26 UTC in
    one report and 15:30 in the other. One report says "Over the town of
    Collie observers reported the object breaking into more fragments. There
    were reports of sound's like distant thunder from the southern stations.
    Also three seismic stations recorded its sonic signature." My estimate
    is that the rocket should have passed over Collie at ~15:21:30 UTC. It
    is not impossible that the decayer was the associated platform (00- 35
    C) instead, though I believe that several of the elsets released for the
    latter are for the rocket, including its final elset.
    
    
    More at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Jul 03 2000 - 14:52:41 PDT