Decay watch: 2000 Jul 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Jul 02 2000 - 03:51:11 PDT

  • Next message: Kevin Fetter: "Re: 21025 not seen"

    #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    This decay continues to slip, with my current estimate standing at 
    Jul  4 01:20 +-18h. There is nothing more from SpaceCom. The latest
    elset, showing it 2.4 min late against yesterday's prediction is:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   1264 x 91 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00184.19117279  .23363499  47805-5  30547-3 0   482
    2 20339  63.7364 358.5446 0831063 246.2536 153.8138 14.64872775 77062
             __________________________________________
    
    #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Jul  2 05:28 +-2h        43.6 N   101.0 W
       SatEvo:   Jul  2 05:10 +-90m        9.7 N   153.2 W
    
    The final elset...
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              320 x 109 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.10308942  .65866670  12599-4  72272-3 0  5514
    2 21025  46.2992 196.2021 0159756  42.0742  28.4809 16.21966334131543
    ... has it 65 sec late on my previous prediction. It probably survived
    its pass across N America at ~03:50 UTC though it is surprising that no
    further elset(s) appeared and that SpaceCom's uncertainty in the decay
    time is 2 hours. SpaceCom puts the decay over South Dakota on its
    following pass which could have taken it from just S of San Francisco at
    05:20 to Montreal at 05:25 if it were still in orbit. My analysis
    favours an earlier decay over the Pacific to the S of Hawaii on that
    same orbit. My predicted elset for final complete orbit is:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              245 x 102 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.15247977 1.61607568  84193+1  10387-2 0 95517
    2 21025  46.2950 195.8953 0109655  42.3821 318.4598 16.37099446131556
             __________________________________________
    
    #26391 = 00- 35 B = Sirius 1 Proton r
    
    No further elsets appeared and there is no change to the decay analyses
    I reported yesterday
             __________________________________________
    
    #26392 = 00- 35 C = Sirius 1 Proton platform
    
    Again, no more elsets were published. My decay estimate, based only on
    the final elset, is more than usually uncertain at Jul  1 16:33 +-6h.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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