Decay watch: 2000 Jul 1 (#21025 update)

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jul 01 2000 - 16:08:57 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2000 Jul 1 (#21025 correction)"

    I have just posted the following to my Decay Watch page at
          http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Object: #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    Notice prepared: 2000 Jul 1 22:50 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Jun 27 16:16     Jul  1 21:10 +-3d        12.5 S    51.5 W
    SpaceCom   Jun 27 21:19     Jul  1 21:48 +-2d        46.2 N    34.3 E
    SpaceCom   Jun 30 08:26     Jul  1 20:40 +-22h       15.8 N   133.0 E
    SpaceCom   Jul  1 06:04     Jul  1 04:11 +-14h       42.4 N    26.9 W
    SpaceCom   Jul  1 17:19     Jul  1 03:40 +-9h         5.0 S   143.3 W
    SpaceCom   Jul  1 21:59     Jul  1 02:44 +-5h        39.6 N     4.1 E
    
    SatEvo     Jun 28 22:15     Jul  2 00:51 +-19h
    SatEvo     Jun 29 20:40     Jul  2 14:56 +-17h
    SatEvo     Jun 30 19:55     Jul  2 03:45 +-9h        20.8 N   119.7 W
    SatEvo     Jul  1 15:40     Jul  2 03:56 +-5h        41.7 N    85.9 W
    SatEvo     Jul  1 22:50     Jul  2 03:38 +-3h         0.0     139.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              555 x 118 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00183.71643037  .40796803  12977-4  10321-2 0  5482
    2 21025  46.3032 198.5448 0325637  40.3099 323.0032 15.77801778131481
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              484 x 115 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00183.84230908  .56495597  36250+0  11249-2 0 95482
    2 21025  46.2999 197.8126 0276003  41.0446 321.0000 15.91024647131507
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              443 x 114 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00183.90491684  .64759416  52017+0  11484-2 0 95481
    2 21025  46.2980 197.4430 0246897  41.4155 320.4302 15.98583391131512
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              396 x 113 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00183.96720000  .77515299  91413+0  11855-2 0 95482
    2 21025  46.2950 197.0711 0213249  41.7888 319.8205 16.07379325131524
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              338 x 111 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.02909637 1.00985301  18935+1  12526-2 0 95482
    2 21025  46.2922 196.6962 0172054  42.1651 319.1458 16.18250383131535
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              257 x 107 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.09048182 1.68225675  77073+1  14222-2 0 95486
    2 21025  46.2884 196.3177 0114224  42.5451 318.3345 16.33802718131543
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 13 seconds early against 
    prediction I posted earlier this evening. I now suspect that this 
    will decay over the eastern Pacific before it makes a northbound 
    pass across N America from Las Cruces, New Mexico, at 03:49 UTC to 
    Montreal at 03:56 However, it would be wise to watch for any decay 
    event at this time and also on the preceding pass which carries it 
    from Pensacola, Florida, at 02:21 to Norfolk, Virginia, at 02:23. 
    SpaceCom's latest estimate moves the decay to a southbound pass over 
    Mallorca in the western Mediterranean.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jul 01 2000 - 16:10:41 PDT