Decay watch: 2000 Jul 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Jul 01 2000 - 09:28:41 PDT

  • Next message: Daniel Deak: "Re: Decay watch: 2000 Jul 1"

    #20339 = 89- 94 B = Molniya 3-36 r
    
    My prediction for this is now Ju1  3 15:51 +-1.5d !
    
    I think I can understand why SpaceCom seems to have given up on this
    decayer - there has been silence since a prediction of decay for Jun 30
    14:38 +-1h. The latest elset:
    Molniya 3-36 r                                   1469 x 90 km
    1 20339U 89094B   00183.51605758  .22091177  44484-5  29856-3 0   459
    2 20339  63.7408   0.6201 0963268 246.1141 232.0052 14.33664462 76960
    
    The decay has slowed very considerably in a fashion that suggests that
    it has fragmented, leaving only its denser core in orbit. I think I have
    seen this before with Molniyas when, I surmise, their solar panels
    detach at perigee, but this is a rocket...
              ___________________________________________
    
    #21025 = 90-112 F = Raduga 26 aux motor
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  1 20:40 +-22h       15.8 N   133.0 E (unchanged)
       SatEvo:   Jul  2 03:56 +-5h        41.7 N    85.9 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              635 x 119 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00183.55001137  .35737016  12668-4  10137-2 0  5479
    2 21025  46.3156 199.4686 0382210  39.2587 101.8477 15.63796343131459
    
    The latest elset shows this running 35 seconds late against yesterday's
    SatEvo prediction. It remains on the cards that this might decay on a
    northbound pass across N America from Las Cruces, New Mexico, at 03:50
    UTC to Montreal at 03:58. My predicted decay point, above, falls between
    Chicago and Detroit. My predicted elset for this rev:
    Raduga 26 aux motor                              219 x 106 km
    1 21025U 90112F   00184.15283706 2.24788893  15047+2  14971-2 0 95479
    2 21025  46.2944 195.9206 0086782  42.8180 317.8548 16.41297939131559
              ___________________________________________
    
    #26391 = 00- 35 B = Sirius 1 Proton r
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  1 15:10 +-2h        64.2 S    32.7 E
       SatEvo:   Jul  1 16:14 +-90m        0.0      59.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Sirius 1 Proton r                                148 x 130 km
    1 26391U 00035B   00183.46476004  .11681904  78680-5  11696-3 0    94
    2 26391  64.8435 284.6074 0013164 280.4231  79.5644 16.50150169    86
    
    I show this decay imminent near a southbound equator crossing over N
    Brazil. SpaceCom has an earlier decay time, but has yet to post its
    final report.
              ___________________________________________
    
    #26392 = 00- 35 C = Sirius 1 Proton platform
    
    Current decay estimates:
       SpaceCom: Jul  1 14:41 +-4d        31.4 N    52.1 W
       SatEvo:   (not predicted)
    
    Latest elset:
    Sirius 1 Proton plateform                        154 x 139 km
    1 26392U 00035C   00183.34349964  .09343675  77965-5  15665-3 0    76
    2 26392  64.8443 285.0911 0011630 279.1273  81.2094 16.47165231    78
    
    The published elsets for this object are inconsistent - it may have been
    confused with the Proton itself.
    
    
    See also http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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