Decay Alert Sputnik Jr. and others

Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Thu, 29 Jul 1999 18:59:38 +0200

Report time 14:00 UTC

1999-015C (#25685) SPUTNIK JR 3

In its last update -prepared July 29. 12:49 UTC - SpaceCom predicts
                    July 29, 18:02 UTC +/- 01 hours (51.5S, 172.5E)
MPM shows with the last ELSET - 99210.460...  - a decay at
                    July 29, 17:38 UTC +/- 44 minutes  (04.7N. 77.8E)
This is on a southbound pass over the Indian Ocean und the southern tip of India.

1199-017NG (25870) MIR DEBRIS;
This was also for SpaceCom an extrem difficult object. They cancelled there
usual prediction "2 hours before decay" and had in its "final report" no 
change against their "12 hours before decay" prediction with its large un-
certainty windows:   July 28, 17:40 UTC +/- 06 hours (49.3N, 33.4E) 

MPM shows with the last released ELSET - 99209.285... - more the 11 hours before 
SpaceComs decay time -  the latest possible decay at
                     July 28 17:56 UTC -/- 22 minutes  (05.1N, 97.6)
in good agreement with Alans and SpaceComs predictions. But I agree also with
with Alans conclusion that there was a real possibility for an earlier decay.
MPM shows this lower limit:  
                     July 28, 15:43 UTC +/- 22 minutes

Harro

Berlin, Germany
Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de