Decay CSL-02 S/D and MIR debris

Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Sun, 25 Jul 1999 16:53:55 +0200

Report time 14:15 UTC

1999-032D (#25780) CSL 02 - Smart Dispenser

At this time there is no final confirmation from SpaceCom about decay time and
no new 'last' ELSET.

1986-17NG (#25870) MIR DEBRIS:
This a few days ago "discovered" MIR DEBRIS is new on SpaceComs forecast 
schedule.        July 28, 15:35 UTC +/- 02 days (26.1S, 289.4E)

Based on the last five released ELSETs I have derived a ballistic coefficient. It 
must be a very small piece. Under the assumption that the effective drag area
is about 1.0 m and the drag coefficient is 2.00 the mass will be around 5.6 kg.
The SGP4 analytical method shows a decay at
                   July 28, 16:36 UTC
With MPM based on the values given above and the the last ELSETs
99206.144... and 99206.334... there will an decay at:
                   July 28  15:57 UTC +/- 12 hours
A visual information about magnitude and tumbling is very important for further
predictions.

Harro

Berlin, Germany

Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de